A turning point in Ukraine's modern history came on April 2 when President Viktor Yushchenko announced the dissolution of Verkhovna Rada and called an early election.
The standoff began after eleven lawmakers from pro-Yushchenko factions defected to Yanukovych's majority coalition last month. More political migration was rumoured to be in the making, raising the possibility that Yanukovych would soon have the backing of 300 lawmakers, enough to override the Presidential veto on constitutional change.
Defending his decision, Yushchenko said it was necessary to prevent his Orange Revolution rival Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych from usurping his power as head of state.
Yanukovych and his parliamentary majority responded by calling the President's move unconstitutional and threatened to ignore it. In the meantime, the matter was brought before Ukraine's Constitutional Court for review.
The Court postponed the first hearing from last Wednesday to April 17 after five of its 18 judges withdrew from the hearings, citing pressure from the Yanukovych camp.
Yushchenko then allegedly threatened to recall six judges, who were appointed under his quota following the Court's failure to rule on any constitutional issues in more than eight months. The President, the Verkhovna Rada and the Congress of Judges appoint six judges each to the Constitutional Court. If inacted, the President's recall would effectively paralyse it completely.
Worst crisis since 2004
The bitter conflict has plunged Ukraine into its worst political crisis since the 2004 Orange Revolution. Yanukovych has brought tens of thousands of his supporters onto the streets and both parties have been building tent camps in central Kyivv claiming their numbers can be raised if necessary.
Yushchenko said the early vote would go ahead regardless of any decision from the Constitutional Court. He even set a date of May 27. However, many see this as being unrealistic due to technical and organisational issues - a set of reservations that even Yushchenko conceded to last week.
May 27 too soon?
It will take the Constitutional Court at least one month to make a ruling. Meanwhile, the Central Elections Commission needs sufficient time to prepare itself for the vote. "The Court has a habit of taking its time over cases," says Oleksandr Lytvynenko, an analyst with the Kyiv-based Razumkov Centre for Economic and Political Studies. "May 27 is too soon. The period of confrontation is not over yet."
Yuriy Kostenko, leader of Ukrainian People's Party, said the vote cannot be held earlier than September or October, citing an unprecedented situation and the time necessary to form electoral districts.
Complicating matters further, Yanukovych later said he would accept Yushchenko's decree, regardless of the Constitutional Court's decision, on the condition that an extraordinary presidential election were held simultaneously. The Prime Minister was betting on strong support in Ukraine's eastern regions and the possibility of defeating the weakened Yushchenko.
Why Yushchenko made his move
Lytvynenko sees Yushchenko's decision as political rather than legal. Under the Constitution, the President can dissolve the Rada only if it fails to form a coalition majority within one month of the vote, if no new cabinet is formed within 60 days of a cabinet resigning, or if lawmakers fail to hold any parliamentary sessions within 30 days of a single regular session. These are the only legal grounds provided by the Constitution for dissolving the Rada.
Yushchenko has already waived his Constitutional right to dissolve the Rada when last year parties failed to form a government within 60 days of the parliamentary elections.
Instead, he threw himself into a quagmire of political horse-trading after his Orange team failed to form a pro-presidential parliamentary majority and became ever more entangled in intrigue and personal power plays.
A last minute betrayal by former ally and Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz (now parliamentary speaker), lost the Orange camp any hope of forming a coalition. Consequently, Yushchenko had to accept Yanukovych as Prime Minister very much against his own will, thus paving the way for future defeats.
The first of these was a hastily-assembled slew of constitutional reforms which transferred considerable presidential power to the Rada. Soon after the President's relationship with key former ally Yulia Tymoshenko (whom he appointed as Prime Minister when he first came to power) hit the rocks. Tymoshenko used the President's weakness to augment her own political standing while trying to position her party as the main political opposition force.
Yushchenko's next defeat was the appointment of Yanukovych as Prime Minister. Soon after, parliamentary forces linked to Yanukovych managed to sack Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk, a famous pro-Western politician and advocate of Ukrainian membership in NATO.
Finally, Yushchenko was deprived of his guaranteed support from the police after Yanukovych dismissed pro-presidential Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko.
The President's control was therefore limited to the security services and armed forces, but luckily for Yushchenko Defense Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko has repeatedly pledged his allegiance to the President.
The struggle for Ukraine’s future
The standoff is widely seen as the last fight for Ukraine's future ideological direction. The outcome should determine once and for all whether Ukraine will follow its policy of European integration idealised by Yushchenko or a slow drift back towards Russia under the control of Kremlin-backed Yanukovych.
But others consider the President's decision rather as a last attempt to defend his dwindling powers and to win himself a new mandate to force through his reforms.
Yushchenko's decision to dissolve the Rada, however, caught Yanukovych somewhat off guard. "The ruling coalition made a mistake by ignoring Yushchenko's behavioural tendencies," says Mykhailo Pohrebynskiy, a Kyiv-based political analyst. "They succumbed to their own political instinct of 'destroy-the-opponent-while-weak.' But Yushchenko is a person who is able to do the most irrational things when up against the wall. "
What’s next
Experts believe that the vote would hardly bring major changes in the current alignment of forces, but has all the makings of a prolonged and bitter political crisis.
"The chances of the balance shifting in someone's favour are very poor," says political analyst Volodymyr Malinkovych. However, "Yanukovych is much stronger and in a better position than he was before," he adds.
If compromise-minded Yushchenko tempers justice with mercy and withdraws his decision, he would weaken his position even further, Malinkovych contends.
The majority currently see Yushchenko as the most likely loser in this latest political war. But if he gives up now without a fight, his political career will be effectively over.
