Peter Keller
Head of Research
Millenium Capital
We expect that all major parties will eventually accept the decision of the President to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada and that campaigning will start very soon for parliamentary elections on May 27.
If Yanukovych is elected Prime Minister again, economic policy should follow his recent performance. With his latest cabinet he was able to initiate substantial economic growth and he will follow a liberal economic policy, generally creating good business conditions, particularly for the large business groups backing his party.
Tymoshenko’s economic performance as prime minister in 2005 was not very convincing. Economic growth slowed down and she followed the policy of a strong state, especially in the economic sector. If Tymoshenko were to be solely responsible for new economic policies we would have some serious concerns about future Economic development. However, her cabinet would be dependent on Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party and indirectly also on Yushchenko himself. The economic policy of Our Ukraine is known as modern and liberal.
But regardless of who will be Ukraine's next prime minister, we are optimistic that the economic growth, increasing FDI and improving business environment evident since last year will continue.
Yaroslav Kolesnik
CEO
Forum Bank
Banks are definitely sensitive to crises. But previous events in Ukraine have demonstrated the opposite. During long periods of multi-stage presidential elections or the exhausting process of creating a coalition government, the banking system has worked on a stable basis. We have acquired an immunity to it all. Of course, we cannot rule out some nervousness among some people or companies, but this will not be of any major consequence to the banking system. Banks won't be affected by this political crisis. We are pretty sure this crisis will be over very soon and Ukrainian society will come out of it healthier and more powerful than before, while new opportunities will open up for banks.
Yuri Lakhno
CEO
Generali Garant Insurance
Whoever wins, business will develop normally as it always has. The thing is that both Yushchenko and Yanukovych need business to develop successfully. Foreign investors are not afraid of political instability either. As soon as they find a reliable partner, they go ahead. They have grown used to various risks, and Ukraine's current turmoil is just another of them.
On the other hand, political chaos can be the best condition under which to work. When top-ranking state officials are fighting for power and the state is not interfering in business, no one prevents us from getting the job done.
Oleh Svinarchuk
President
Bogdan Automobile Corporation
Any political instability is not good for business. It hurts the investment climate. Many investment projects could fall through under the threat of political breakdown.
Jorge Zukoski
President
American Chamber of Commerce
Investors, both foreign and domestic, when evaluating the environment in which to invest their finite amount of capital look for both predictability and stability in the market place.
In an environment like Ukraine, predictability and stability are primarily impacted by the government through implementation of legislation and other regulatory frameworks that impact the business community.
Unfortunately, in the last several months, predictability and stability have decreased dramatically as both the President and Prime Minister, as well as those around them, have been busy trying to solidify their power base.
This type of behavior frightens investors, both those who are already in the market and those who are interested in entering the market. For those who have not yet invested, it will in most cases cause them to wait for clarity and the resumption of a level of predictability and stability that they are comfortable with. For those who have already invested, they are looking for increased predictability and stability so that they can focus on building their businesses in an effective manner.
It is a widely understood fact confirmed by leaders of most Ukrainian political groups that both new and old investors who bring both foreign and domestic capital to the table are critical to the future success of Ukraine. The longer the uncertainty remains, the more Ukraine's economy and ultimately her people will lose in terms of opportunities and building a successful future within the larger global community.
