In the wake of the parliamentary elections it is hard to see what more Viktor Yanukovych can hope to achieve in politics.
Having already made one of the most unlikely and memorable political comebacks in recent European history, he now stands at the head of a party which has conspicuously failed to capitalise on the second chance it secured in 2006 and has instead suffered a resounding electoral snub.
Collapse on the eastern front
It is not simply the fact that the Orange camp enjoyed a renaissance of their own at the polls that will have troubled Regions loyalists. Yanukovych’s party still came in first, after all and finished within a whisker of amassing enough seats to lead a new parliamentary coalition. However, the election offered dark hints that the party has already peaked and is now in danger of losing ground under Yanukovych’s leadership.
Yulia Tymoshenko’s success in winning over sizable minorities in what were preciously considered the impregnable Regions citadels of southeast Ukraine is said to have shocked the party leadership, and suggests that they could be in danger of eventually losing their grip on the Yanukovych heartlands altogether.
Elsewhere, the party failed to make ground in the centre or west of the country, and is now facing the prospect of watching the foundations of their carefully nurtured support base slowly dwindle.
The eternal nearly man
Yanukovych still commands a massive following throughout the Regions-loyal oblasts, but this election has served to illustrate once again his inability to expand politically or build on this strong regional following.
As such he is something of an electoral busted flush, doomed to remain stuck in the 30% to 40% bracket but without any hope of ever gaining an actual majority.
Despite their bluster, his Regions colleagues must be painfully aware of this fact, and there are no doubt already many party members secretly discussing the need for a radically new approach.
No new faces
All of which leaves the Party of Regions in quite a quandary, as there is nobody in the party ranks capable of replacing the one man who can still mobilise the Donbass masses and act as a figurehead for an anti-Orange opposition.
He may not be able to lead Regions to national victory, but his presence at least guarantees localised dominance.
Having preferred to fill their ranks with caricatures like Nestor Shufrich or media-friendly political non-entities such as Raisa Bogatorova, Regions now face the distant but already dim prospect of entering the 2009 presidential race backing Yanukovych yet knowing he is going to lose.
Russia finds itself in a similar predicament, with absolutely no candidates at hand who could possibly act as an alternative flag-bearer in the way Yanukovych has over the past three years.
Ukraine’s fast-emerging multi-party system is already far too sophisticated to allow for a well-groomed unknown to be brought in from the shadows, a practice first employed to bring Putin himself to power and now favoured by the Russian president.
Both Regions and the Russians may therefore find they are stuck with Yanukovych, at least for the time being. In the short term he may still prove useful in destabilizing any renewed Orange government, but as the harsh reality of the election results sinks in he can surely harbour few hopes of playing a leading role in Ukrainian politics beyond the 2009 presidential elections.
