Despite the hopes of the business world and the general public, Ukraine's feuding President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych failed to reach agreement on a date for early parliamentary elections putting an end to the ongoing political uncertainty when they met last Wednesday. Newly appointed chief of the National Defense and Security Council Ivan Plyushch who attended the meeting said "more problems arose than we anticipated."
Meanwhile, Taras Chornovil, a lawmaker and member Yanukovych's Party of Regions confessed: "Nobody can say what happened today," adding he was surprised that the long-awaited agreement had not been reached. "It seems that both sides understand the problem and the delay is a necessary one. Apparently, there is one more obstacle to overcome," he said. However, he considered the obstacle to be purely technical otherwise the delay would be announced publicly.
The games continue
Having failed to reach agreement, the political tug-of-war continued. Last Friday Yushchenko was to chair the powerful National Security and Defence Council, the decisions of which become law once signed by the President, but the meeting had to be postponed as the Cabinet claimed the Council had not submitted the necessary papers to the Prime Minister.
Yushchenko then accused his opponents of stalling and threatened to force an election date through the Council if no deal could be struck.
While political analysts believe it highly unlikely that the Constitutional Court will ever reach a decision on the two presidential decrees issued last month dissolving the Verkhovna Rada and calling for early elections which will probably be ignored even if it does, this has not stopped the political maneouvering spilling over into the running of the Court. Last Thursday, the Court’s chairman Ivan Dombrovsky tendered his resignation for the second time in a month and he was replaced by another judge, one of the three Yushchenko previously fired.
Date still not set
Throughout all this, the question of when the elections will take place still remains the main cause for concern. Yushchenko originally set a date for May 24 and then postponed it by a month, but despite continued pressure from Yanukovych and the ruling coalition, he has remained adamant that early elections will take place, the only question now being when. The Constitution allows a maximum of 60 days for an election after final agreement on the date is reached, but such an agreement still seems some way off and therefore predicting a date is difficult.
The leader of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party Vyacheslav Kyrylenko said that everything is in place for the elections to take place in July. "The election date was arranged a long time ago. In an attempt at compromise we agreed to postpone the elections again, from June 24 to the middle of July," he said.
Stepan Gavrysh, a Constitutional Court judge, said there are two likely time frames for the ballot - June 24 to July 8, September 9 to early October. He said September 9 was the most likely date as it would provide more than enough time to for necessary changes to the election legislation and other necessary preparations.
Chornovil of the Party of Regions also considered summer to be a bad time to hold elections as it raises the likelihood of fraud resulting from a low turnout which is easier to manipulate. He predicted naturally predicted victory for the Party of Regions, but his reasons seemed reasonably sound as opposition BYUT leader Yulia Tymoshenko has seen her ratings erode as Yuschenko's popularity, which has been in gradual decline since he came to power, has taken a mammoth leap since his sudden change of style from one of appeasement to one of strength, splitting the Orange vote. "Yushchenko has finally demonstrated his will, which nobody expected. People were sick of having a weak president, they wanted to see some strength and purpose in his actions. When Yushchenko banged his fist on the table, people sat up and took notice," Chornovil said.
Assassination plot allegations
While Ukraine moves slowly, and hopefully relentlessly, towards greater democracy, old Soviet-style tactics still raise their ugly heads, causing great concern amongst political analysts both at home and abroad, and while many people hoped the country had moved past such things, assassination plots still seem very much part and parcel of Ukrainian politics. The Ukrainian Security Service is currently investigating allegations of an assassination plot targeting top officials. The probe was launched after a Yushchenko aide claimed earlier this month he had information indicating that criminals and unnamed political parties were plotting to kill Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko's chief of staff.
Chornovil, however, said this was a political move on the part of the President. "The Ukrainian situation is developing not along constitutional lines, but psychological ones. Now we hear of an assassination plot against Tymoshenko, and now against Yushchenko. He is trying to create a situation where he can declare a state of emergency and force direct presidential rule," he said.
Reversals of fortune
Assassination plots aside, there is little doubt politics in Ukraine are developing a more western style. The Wall Street Journal last week said: "[Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych] has undergone one of the most extreme makeovers in global politics. Just two years ago, the Russian-backed machine politician was a pariah in the West after he claimed victory in the 2004 presidential elections, which were marred by fraud and a brutal poisoning that left his opponent disfigured. Only the subsequent mass street protests of the so-called Orange Revolution forced him to accept a redo of the vote, which he lost."
After the Orange Revolution, Yanukovych found himself in opposition for the first time in his career, but he did not give in and his party won the majority of seats in the 2006 parliamentary election. A little later he was appointed Prime Minister when internal intrigues tore the Orange movement to pieces leaving him able to form a governing coalition.
Today, the public persona of the man has undergone an extensive makeover that paints him as a democrat and advocate of free expression. He expresses his support for EU and WTO membership which he mixes with a message of caution, making it hard to see his true intentions. There is, however, no doubt he now realises the importance of PR, and how he is viewed both at home and abroad.
While Yanukovych's public image improves, that of his opponent President Viktor Yushchenko has spiralled downwards. Once hailed as the hero of the Orange Revolution and Ukraine's strongest advocate for democracy, he has seen his popularity and international standing slowly erode. His failure to follow up on his promises combined with his weak personal image has impacted upon his standing both at home and abroad. The recent last-minute cancellation by British Prime Minister Tony Blair of a recent planned trip to the UK is considered by some as an indicator of his reduced gravitas - it was certainly something his opponents leapt upon with relish.
