Although the BYUT and Our Ukraine/People’s Self Defence blocs had previously signed a pre-election agreement to form a coalition, an impasse appeared to have been reached in the weeks following Yulia Tymoshenko’s strong showing at the polls on September 30, raising fears over a repeat of the prolonged 2006 coalition talks, which ended in collapse and a surprise return to office for Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions.
Stalling and scheming
Following the elections, a number of Our Ukraine deputies refused to sign the final coalition agreement, claiming principled opposition to elements of the deal. Many commentators linked the reluctance of this splinter group within Our Ukraine directly to President Yushchenko’s personal concerns over the ascendancy of his erstwhile ally Tymoshenko, whom Yushchenko is said to view as his closest rival in the presidential elections of 2009.
This election was viewed as in part a dress rehearsal for the presidential elections scheduled for two years time. Tymoshenko’s BYUT bloc claimed over 30% of the national vote in the September 30 national parliamentary vote, while Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine/People’s Self-Defence bloc was left to finish the election campaign in a poor third place with around 15%, highlighting the collapse in popularity the president has experienced since he was swept to power on the back of 2004’s Orange Revolution.
Yushchenko had taken an active role in campaigning during the elections, drawing criticism from Party of Regions officials over what they termed as abuse of office by appearing in thinly-veiled party political campaign advertising, but the end result was yet more confirmation that he will struggle to gain reelection if faced by the vibrant and relatively untarnished Tymoshenko. As a result, analysts have claimed that the Yushchenko team has been looking to ways of limiting and marginalising Tymoshenko and forging closer ties with Yushchenko’s Orange Revolution adversary Viktor Yanukovych, who is viewed as posing a less dangerous threat to the president’s chances of reelection.
Compromise candidates
Much of the coalition talks centred on the question of candidates for the speaker position in the new parliament, with the president looking to reassert his flagging authority by lobbying against the original Orange candidate, Our Ukraine leader Vyacheslav Kirilenko, in favour of loyalist Ivan Plushch. This apparent attempt to build bridges with the Party of Regions, with whom Plushch enjoys close ties, was seen as a repeat of the 2006 coalition talks period, when Yushchenko ordered his party hierarchy to carry out parallel talks with both the Party of Regions and BYUT.
Yushchenko backs down
President Yushchenko went as far as hinting at a resurrection of the Broad Coalition concept, which would bring together the seemingly ideologically opposed Party of Regions and Our Ukraine factions and isolate Yulia Tymoshenko’s eponymous bloc, but was faced by a rebellion within his own party, with a majority of members finally threatening to invite former parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to join their Orange bloc as speaker, causing a cave-in among the presidential faction.
The way now appears clear for the election of Foreign Minister and Our Ukraine bloc member Arseniy Yatsenyuk as speaker in a secret ballot scheduled for December 4, which will pave the way for an open vote in parliament on Yulia Tymoshenko’s candidacy to head the new government. Tymoshenko requires 226 votes to be confirmed as prime minister, and with 227 deputies signed up as members of the new Orange coalition and other members of parliament expected to be sympathetic, there appears to be little now standing between her and the PM’s office.
As the country braced itself for a new Tymoshenko-led government, BYUT MP Serhiy Solobev disclosed secret recordings to the media on November 30 purporting to show Party of Regions members and associates attempting to bribe future coalition members into preventing any Orange deal by refusing to sign the existing agreement, voting against Tymoshenko’s candidacy or calling in sick on the day of the ballot for PM.
The recordings appeared to show Party of Regions officials offering USD 10 million to anyone prepared to co-operate. Orange officials claimed the recordings prove their long-standing allegations of bribery attempts by the Party of Regions. The material was passed to law enforcement for investigation, BYUT representatives said.
Triumph for Tymoshenko
The election of Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister is not yet a certainty, although it would appear to be the only credible option for this session of the Ukrainian parliament. Members of the BYUT bloc are said to be in negotiation with individual members of the Lytvyn bloc in order to bolster their slim majority ahead of the vote, while high level Russian government officials appear to have reconciled themselves to the return of Tymoshenko and are said to have visited Kyiv in the past few weeks for talks with the former opposition leader.
A return to the office of prime minister would be a political fairytale for Tymoshenko, who was unceremoniously ousted from office in September 2005 after just eight months on the job after becoming PM in the immediate aftermath of the Orange Revolution. Since then, the iconic politician has positioned herself as the true standard bearer of the 2004 popular uprising and has regularly spoken out against what she has termed as compromises with Russia and holdovers from the old Kuchma regime.
Decision in the east
During the 2007 election campaign Tymoshenko focused her efforts on the south and east of the country, visiting areas traditionally considered to be watertight citadels of support for the Party of Regions. Her personal appearances throughout the region, together with widespread disappointment among supporters over the performance of the Yanukovych government, are thought to have been instrumental in securing an almost 50% leap in support for Tymoshenko, placing her firmly in the driving seat for coalition talks and installing her as hot favourite for the 2009 presidency.
PM or presidency?
The question many analysts are asking now is whether Tymoshenko would want the presidency, given the increased powers that will be at her disposal if, as expected, she is elected prime minister this week. Following the official signing of the renewed Orange coalition deal, senior members of the BYUT bloc appeared to hold out an olive branch to the beleaguered presidential administration, with Oleksandr Turchinov commenting, “I cannot exclude the option of offering our support for a single candidate in the 2009 presidential campaign,” suggesting that Tymoshenko will not run for the job of head of state but would instead offer her support for Yushchenko’s reelection.
