Last week's EU-Russia summit highlighted once more the gulf that exists in today's enlarged EU between the member states who would like to adopt a firmer stance against the new Russian imperialism and those who pretend it does not exist. This divide, unsurprisingly, runs neatly through the continent and pits those countries that fell under Russian hegemony after the Second World War against those that didn't, which is itself a fairly damning verdict on the individual self-interests driving the policies of many older EU member states.
Despite going into talks with the much publicised intention of presenting a united front there was clearly little real consensus on how to handle Russia, largely because the overbearing behaviour of the Eurasian giant is not for the time being perceived by every member as their own individual problem. This lesson has not been lost on the Kremlin, which is growing more self-confident by the day and has clearly overcome the hesitancy that caused Putin to retreat from his Ukrainian adventure in the face of international opposition in 2004.
None of this is of course news to anyone in Kyiv, where it is known only too well that Europe's cautious stance towards Ukrainian integration is in no small part the product of fears over upsetting Russia.
Now the Estonians have had a taste of the Georgian treatment and seen for themselves just how little support they can expect to receive from their EU partners as western leaders seem resigned to following the path of moderation and compromise. Such is Europe's reliance on Russian energy supplies that across the continent many countries now seem prepared to sacrifice any lesser principle at the altar of energy dependency rather than risk any disruption to essential oil and gas supplies.
This may well be a short-term economic necessity, but it could also reap a harvest that many will come to deeply regret and future generations will find hard to forgive. After all, in the space of a few short years we have all stood by and watched as Russia cut off energy supplies to Ukraine, the Baltics, Belarus and Georgia, declare unrestricted economic warfare via blanket bans on major national exports throughout Eastern Europe, give open backing to rigged elections across the region and provide tacit support to breakaway movements in Georgia and Moldova.
Moscow has fermented separatist sentiment in Crimea and the Donbass, tried to stir up inter-ethnic strife in the Carpathians and most recently incited mass disorder in Estonia. And this is all accompanied by an inexorable slide towards authoritarian rule within Russia itself, which comes complete with dead journalists, a brutally suppressed political opposition, crude nationalist rhetoric and media suppression of almost Soviet proportions.
It is all too easy for politicians to sit back in Paris, Rome or Copenhagen and say that all this poses no direct danger to them, but surely it is only a matter of time before such a blinkered approach produces disastrous results. If nobody is prepared to take action in support of Russia's former colonies these newly-independent countries face the risk of once again falling under the shadow of an increasingly domineering Kremlin. While dealing with Russia is undoubtedly tricky under current circumstances, imagine how much tougher it would be if it managed to establish political control throughout the CIS giving it de facto direct control over oil and gas pipelines and other strategic benefits.
Sooner or later the EU will have to accept that the current diplomatic dialogue with Russia is not going to bring the results it wants. Europe will have to acknowledge the bald fact that it is not dealing with a democracy and adjust its tactics accordingly. History abounds with examples of bullies being appeased and remaining unchallenged until it is too late - with almost always catastrophic results. Ukraine faces having to bear the brunt of such political folly, but it is only a matter of time before Western Europe is also left ruing the day it turned a blind eye. As Churchill said of the Russians in his celebrated 1946 'Iron Curtain' speech, "I am convinced that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness."
