History, so the old saying goes, has a wicked sense of humour. Who would have dared to suggest six months ago that tin pot Central Asian dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, a.k.a. Turkmenbashi, or "Father of the Turkmen" would become a pivotal figure in the Great Game for 21st century energy independence? While alive the dictator may have been more widely known for his taste in rotating golden statues and his habit of renaming the days of the week in honour of direct family members, but in death the President-For-Life may come to be remembered as the man whose departure signaled the opening up of the strategic Central Asian energy reserves to the wider world.
Since the great Turkmenbashi passed away last December the dusty streets of his capital Ashgabat have become one of the most active fronts in the battle for access to the vast energy reserves of the region, with a host of potential investors trying to gain a foothold in the region and rushing to negotiate with the new administration. Unlike previous attempts, they have not yet been politely turned away, leading many commentators to speculate that what was once a CIS members-only club is now looking increasingly like a viable open market, with the new Turkmen government actively investigating the possibility of transporting and shipping gas to Europe and bypassing Russia. Such an act has long been considered political anathema among post-Soviet circles but if pursued to its conclusion it could trigger a major shift in today's energy geopolitics that would have repercussions right across the Eurasian land mass from China to the British Isles.
All this is potentially very good news for Ukraine. As Europe's great borderland the country could reasonably expect to be heavily involved in any energy bypass plans. The only problem is that talk of using Ukraine to bypass Russia for Central Asian and Caspian Sea resources would end up focusing attention once again on that great national albatross, the oft-stalled, reversed, on-off Odessa Brody Plotsk pipeline, which has been one of the country's longest running debacles since independence. In many ways the Brody pipeline represents Ukraine's chronic policy indecision, and over the past few years it has consistently been one of the many rods used by the Kremlin to keep the country in check.
Pushing the issue would mean confronting Russian energy policy head-on, which is something the current government is highly unlikely to consider any time soon. They will far more likely procrastinate and seek to compromise, which could be damaging to Ukraine's long-term energy interests, because the time must surely come when uncertainty over the country's ability to provide secure transit makes it appear a highly unattractive partner in any new agreements and encourage European partners to look elsewhere for alternative routes. Ukraine may be a geographical bottleneck ideally placed to pour vital energy resources into the EU, but it risks being corked by its own indecision.
