As Ukraine slumbered through the traditional May Day holiday period, the rumbling diplomatic Cold War between Kyiv and Moscow threatened to heat up in the wake of the Kremlin’s tough stance over future Ukrainian NATO membership, while Russia’s increasing recognition for breakaway rule in two Georgian separatist regions raised tensions across the region.
This latest deterioration in relations with Russia dates from an early May summit of NATO member country heads of state in Bucharest which saw the alliance compromise over offering Ukraine a Membership Action Plan, opting instead to make a firm but unspecific commitment to future Ukrainian membership following a chorus of disapproval from Moscow. Since the NATO declaration a number of bombastic remarks appearing to belittle Ukrainian statehood and threaten intervention have been attributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, provoking an official protest from Ukraine’s delegation to the UN.
Yuriy Serheyev, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the UN, commented in a statement addressed to the UN’s General Council: “The stance stated by the Russian Federation might have unforeseen effects on peace and security.” Earlier in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had commented that Russia “would do everything to prevent Ukraine and Georgia from being accepted into NATO,” prompting demands for urgent clarification from Kyiv and NATO officials, while the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant reported on April 8 that during talks with President Bush, Mr. Putin had threatened to begin the process of absorbing Crimea and eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation if Kyiv were offered NATO membership.
Defiant NATO summit scheduled
This note of protest to the UN has been accompanied by news that all 26 NATO ambassadors plan to travel to Ukraine for a June conference which is being portrayed as a show of defiant strength in the face of Russian bluster. “It will be a visible demonstration of NATO’s intensive engagement with Ukraine,” a spokesman confirmed, adding that the summer summit would also allow NATO allow Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to meet government officials and perform some much-needed public diplomacy for the alliance in Ukraine.
Elsewhere in central Europe, support has come from Ukraine’s western neighbours, traditionally among the most vocal supporters of the country’s Euro-Atlantic integrationist ambitions. With their own experience of Soviet rule still very part of the collective historical experience and policy decisions flavoured by a desire to put as much of a democratic cordon between themselves and Russia as possible, the former eastern Bloc has been far more willing to embrace Ukraine’s integration efforts.
Fresh confirmation of the commitment was forthcoming in late April when the Visegrad group of nations, a loose grouping which contains Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia issued a joint statement in favour of Ukraine’s NATO bid. The strongly worded missive was clearly a response to recent statements from Russia over the subject and stands in stark contrast to the more hesitant policy of the western European democracies.
Georgia threatens to boil over
The immediate concern for the international community remains in the Caucasus, where in late April Mr. Putin ordered his government to recognise some documents issued by separatist authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, leading to statements of concern from the Western members of the UN Security Council. The decision to up the ante in the southern Caucasus before Putin leaves office was seen as a victory for Kremlin hardliners, and Russia responded to international criticism with its own claims that Georgia is preparing to launch military operations to reclaim the breakaway regions.
However, while the Georgian pot threatens to boil over it is thought that the biggest long-term threat to regional stability is tied to Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO and align itself fully with the Western democracies. In a recent Financial Times article addressing Russia’s muscle-flexing Kremlin insider Sergei Markov commented on the determination within the Kremlin to fight for influence in their former southern colony. “Ukraine isn’t just another country for us. It’s our red line. Many people ask, ‘is Poland a red line?’ No. The Baltic states? No. Even Georgia? No. But for Ukraine the answer is yes. The red line is Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership.”
Stage set for Medvedev
Russia’s bold position has been bolstered by a lack of unity among many west European EU and NATO member states, who would prefer to maintain cordial relations with Russia than embark on risky expansions into huge and historically Russian-dominated countries of uncertain political stability. America has proved considerably more consistent in its support for Ukraine, and Russian hardliners will have been disheartened to witness all three US presidential candidates issue strong statements in support of Ukraine’s NATO bid.
All eyes will now be on new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who takes office this week. His approach to relations with the former Soviet republics in the coming months will set the tone for his presidency and offer some indication of whether this arch Putin loyalist really represents a break with the alarming authoritarianism of recent years.
