At first glance the election has all the makings of a serious setback for Ukrainian democracy. A worrying percentage of the population remain adamant that they will not be voting at all, while others seem to be viewing their vote as a social duty to their regional chieftains rather than a moral obligation or opportunity to stand up for their personal beliefs or initiate change for the better. The old mantra that the political classes are all the same has gained new currency and campaign promises are largely regarded with unconcealed disdain.
There is little here that needs explaining, given the steady stream of disappointments that followed the euphoria of 2004. However, the fact remains that amid all the moans and groans, the fires of Ukrainian democracy continue to burn despite numerous attempts to quash the flames with bucketfuls of cynicism and sabotage.
Three years since the Orange Revolution shook the populace out of its apathetic slumber, the idea that Ukraine’s great democratic breakthrough could somehow be reversed now lies in tatters.
Political climate change
At every level there have been indications of an emerging democratic culture which holds promise for the country’s European ambitions. The election campaign has been well covered by the increasingly professional and unhindered Ukrainian media, and the various parties have been accorded their fair share of airtime without the mysterious electrical blackouts and blatant propaganda of yesteryear.
Meanwhile, the institutionalised spoiling tactics and administrative manipulation of previous campaigns have made random but mercifully brief appearances, much like the fading symptoms of a once-sick patient well on the road to recovery.
Whereas in 2004 Viktor Yushchenko found himself barred from landing at airports throughout the country and his activists were harried and harassed wherever government support was considered sufficient to allow it, this year’s campaign has seen opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko holding massive public rallies in city centres throughout the government strongholds of south-eastern Ukraine, an unthinkable development just a few years ago.
We will still doubtless be treated to all sorts of polling day tricks and accusations, but the very fact that such irregularities are now seen as potent political weapons by all sides of the political spectrum is evidence in itself that fraud and falsification are no longer regarded as a valid part of post-Soviet politics in today’s Ukraine.
The historical fissures that scar the Ukrainian landscape remain a factor in any political debate, but the move away from Soviet-style them and us rhetoric towards policy issues that has marked this campaign suggests that the ugly politics of ethnicity is losing its potency as a tool to divide and polarise the Ukrainian population. Ukraine has yet to reach the level of political maturity where ideas can genuinely triumph over personalities, but this is nevertheless progress worth noting.
Time for the politicians to catch up
If they are to entertain hopes of staying in office, Ukraine’s politicians must now reinvent themselves in line with the national dynamic. Viktor Yanukovych will have to do a lot more than learn how to smile and refrain from swearing in public if he wants the electorate to take seriously the spin that he is somehow a new man. Likewise, his party will have to add substance to the oft-cited refrain that they are interested in embracing international business practices and moving out of the shadows.
Attempts by the Regions-led coalition to return to the practices of old led directly to the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada this year and if this lesson is not taken on board there is no reason to assume that the exercise could not be repeated. Despite their long and loud protestations, the governing coalition eventually accepted the president’s decree and faced up to the inevitability of new elections. They now need to demonstrate that other lessons have also been learnt.
The shaky Orange alliance will have to overcome its childish infighting and perceived populism if it is to regain power and, crucially, hold onto it for any meaningful period of time. Yulia Tymoshenko has responded to criticism over empty promises by focusing much of her bloc’s campaign on concrete policy objectives that have been painstakingly spelled out for voters and others have found themselves forced to follow her lead or be left behind in the process.
Ultimately, as they decide whether to vote or not, Ukrainians should bear in mind that a healthy distrust of their political classes is part and parcel of just about every functioning democracy in the world. It is a sign of a strong, open society, not an indication that the situation is hopeless.
