President Viktor Yushchenko has never before been so close to dissolving the Verkhovna Rada. In recent weeks, he has faced the threat of losing even more power as some allied lawmakers defected to the ruling coalition led by his political arch-rival Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych claims to have the support of 260 lawmakers in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada, and his party has predicted it will soon reach the critical number of 300 - enough to overcome presidential vetoes.
As more and more signals came from the President’s office that the break point had come, what was said was a draft order fixing May 27 for early elections even began circulating on the Internet.
In his apparent last attempt to avoid making the critical decision, the always compromise-minded Yushchenko called for urgent talks with parliamentary speaker and faction leaders as well as Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
However, many see the move as a step toward dissolution, since Ukrainian law requires the president to hold consultations with parliament leaders prior to dissolving the legislature.
"There is an 80% possibility of dissolving the Rada now," said Oleksandr Zadorozhniy, a member of Ukraine's Supreme Justice Council.
Last Thursday Yushchenko made his strongest criticism ever of Yanukovych's Cabinet and accused lawmakers of violating the Constitution.
"This is a barefaced revision of the will of Ukrainian voters, breaches in the Constitution of Ukraine and direct path to lawlessness," he said in an address timed to mark the anniversary of last year's parliamentary elections.
"In the past year, Ukraine has faced many cynical examples of political intrigue and betrayal, but this tendency to usurp power has become the most dangerous," he added.
Yushchenko increasingly sidelined
If any political force claims to create a 300-member majority, "then we should take a political decision: to hold early parliamentary elections," the President said. He also stressed that under the Constitution, a coalition must be formed within one month of the Verkhovna Rada's opening session and it can only comprise parliamentary factions and no single or small groups of members.
Western-leaning Yushchenko has been locked in an escalating battle for power with Kremlin-backed Yanukovych, his political rival since the bitterly-fought 2004 presidential elections. Yanukovych's party put together the ruling coalition after the 2006 parliamentary elections, since which Yushchenko has found himself increasingly sidelined.
Analysts warned that Ukraine's turmoil would scare off foreign investors.
"The current political situation won't badly affect local business, because since 2004 Ukrainian business has been undergone permanent stress and adapted itself to constant political intrigues," said Vasyl Yurchishyn, an economic analyst with Kyiv-based Razumkov Center for Economy and Political Studies.
"However, international investors will beware of taking serious strategic decisions, and those who had their eyes on large business in Ukraine, will wait till the situation is settled. On the other hand, short-term projects will work because foreign investors know who they are dealing with," Yurchishyn added.
Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko warned that the country's political turmoil was threatening Europe's energy security.
"Ukraine gave its own people and the people of Europe an opportunity to receive diversified sources of energy (after the 2004 Orange Revolution)," she said. Yanukovych's government has "moved away from" or suspended efforts to use Central Asian gas and Middle Eastern oil to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines, she added.
