There was an almost audible rumble at around 5pm on October 3 as the entire nation collectively let out a hearty groan. It was reacting to President Yushchenko’s surprise TV address, in which he called on all political parties to unite and work together. Both seasoned analysts and partisan politicians were taken off guard by the news, but to the proverbial man in the street it must have seemed like just one more example of Yushchenko’s apparent passion for party political machinations masquerading as statesmanship.
Creating coalition confusion
The immediate result of the president’s address was to throw the seemingly straightforward coalition talks into chaos, which, presumably, was Yushchenko’s intention. His appeal certainly succeeded in throwing a temporary spanner into the wheels of the Tymoshenko victory parade just as her progress to the prime minister’s office was beginning to seem all but assured.
Such turns of fate are routine events in Kyiv, but this attempt to undermine the self-proclaimed democratic opposition in their moment of glory was in particularly bad taste, and flew in the face of much that Yushchenko has stood for as a politician over the past nine years.
Supporters of a broad coalition would no doubt point to the over 50% of the electorate who didn’t vote for an Orange coalition, and argue that by including the likes of the Party of Regions in some way it would be possible to bring everyone onto the same team. This at least seems to be what Yushchenko was getting at, but if that is the sum total of his thoughts on the subject then he obviously holds to some fairly odd interpretations as to what democracy is all about.
Fear of the Yulia factor?
It is far likelier that he was driven by a desire to demonstrate to Yulia Tymoshenko that he is still the ultimate arbiter of the Ukrainian political scene. There is little to suggest at this stage that Yushchenko has any hope whatsoever of re-election in 2009, but he is nevertheless widely thought to harbour dreams of a second term. As such he must be acutely aware that his biggest rival is not Viktor Yanukovych but Tymoshenko, who now has an unprecedented national support base and would surely thrash any candidate who dared go head to head with her in a race for the presidency.
The idea that he would sacrifice the ideals of democratic Ukraine for the sake of his own political career may seem fanciful, but this is not the first time he has performed ideological contortions to suit a shifting political climate and protect his own tenuous grip on power. Few will forget the deal struck with his erstwhile arch-enemy Yanukovych in autumn 2005, or the way he handled simultaneous negotiations with rival blocs following last year’s parliamentary vote.
This time he has surpassed even himself, and the damage this time could be terminal. It is hard to imagine any voter demographic that would support this call for a mixed administration and regardless of the outcome of ongoing coalition talks, Yushchenko’s hard won reputation as the defender of Ukraine’s young democracy is tarnished forever.
Disarming a difficult neighbour
As all this was going on, Russia entered the fray in the form of a threat to cut gas supplies if huge and previously hushed-up debts were not promptly paid in full. This is fairly standard posturing from the Putin regime, and is to be expected. The real question now is how long Ukraine’s politicians will allow the albatross of addiction to cheap Russian gas to hang round their necks and obstruct the country’s progress.
Dealing with the energy issue will inevitably be a painful process for any Ukrainian government brave enough to take it on, but not doing so will leave Ukraine stuck in the limbo of dependency and unable to implement the far-reaching reforms that the electorate has given Tymoshenko and her Orange coalition colleagues a mandate to pursue. Talk of European integration and a brave new Ukraine will remain empty words until the country is in a position to act independently.
In the long term Ukraine could look to utilise Western sympathy for its democratic transition in order to secure the kind of major funding that would soften the economic blow of any energy policy revolution. For the time being Kyiv could at least look to disarm Russia’s energy arsenal by inviting EU member states to deal directly with the Kremlin for the gas Ukraine currently transits, and stop getting caught in the middle.
