Confusion reigned last Friday as two serving members of the ruling Orange coalition announced their intention to split from the government, leaving the coalition without the requisite number of MPs to form a parliamentary majority and sparking a heated debate on the constitutional implications of the defections. Parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk surprised MPs on June 6 with news that he had received notification from two deputies, Ihor Rybakov from BYUT and Yuriy But from NUNS, of their intention to leave the coalition. After reading the deputies’ declarations Mr. Yatsenyuk commented: “I want to say only one thing – let these people change their mind.” The current ruling coalition was created by 227 deputies, one more than the bare minimum required to form a majority in the 450-seat legislature. The loss of two coalition members would leave the government one member short.
Corruption at the core
“My decision to leave the parliamentary majority is the logical result of my exposure to numerous corrupt activities which can be traced to leading government officials” said Ihor Rybakov of Mrs. Tymoshenko’s BYUT bloc. Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, the leader of the NUNS parliamentary bloc, moved to quell fears that the desertions would mean an end to the Orange coalition, pointing out that according to the Constitution and current legislation any decision on making or breaking up a parliamentary coalition can only be made by factions. President Yushchenko’s chief of staff Viktor Baloha also moved to deny that the coalition had been dealt a fatal blow. “To break up the coalition the majority of MPs in a member faction must approve the move,” the outspoken critic of Mrs. Tymoshenko offered.
Principle versus profit
Allegations that the two defectors had been offered financial incentives to split with the Orange coalition were quick to surface. Yuriy Hrymchak, a deputy from the Self-Defence party which is a member of the NUNS bloc, commented on June 6: “Deputies have once again begun to sell themselves for money and for the promise of posts and a lucrative future. But if we look at the not so distant past and at the fate of those who betrayed their political forces, their principles and ideas, we will see that they have disappeared from the political scene without trace.”
“The betrayal of these two deputies will not lead to any constitutional consequences because coalitions are made by factions and so far both the BYUT faction and NUNS faction continue to work. It will be more difficult now to work because besides all the other problems we face there are now two more persons with their own specific demands,” commented People’s Self-Defence party leader Yuriy Lutsenko.
Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych, who has repeatedly predicted that the governing coalition would collapse from within, was clearly buoyed by the news of these latest Orange defections. After months out of the political limelight Mr. Yanukovych now senses that he might be about to stage his second political resurrection and return to government as part of a broad coalition including his Party of Regions and elements of Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party. “I would like not to make any forecasts yet but negotiations will now be speeded up over a new coalition,” the former PM commented.
Time for fresh elections?
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was less upbeat about the prospects of holding the Orange coalition together and raised the chances of fresh elections to create a new governing majority. “I don’t know whether the rival political teams will now change places. It is very difficult to predict when and how new elections will be held,” the PM commented in the wake of the resignations.
Analysts feared that the short-term result of the defections could be yet more political deadlock, with the legality of the current coalition left up to the constitutional court to decide. The constitutional court has been widely lambasted over the past 12 months for its perceived susceptibility to party political interests and subjectivity. It failed to resolve the stand-off created in April 2007 by President Yushchenko’s decree to dissolve parliament and call snap elections and has been widely discredited by its indecisive role in the ensuing crisis.
