As the process of vote counting got underway on Monday, observers reflected on Yulia Tymoshenko’s apparent gains and the implications for the country of a new ruling Orange coalition.
A view from the markets
Valentin Zelenyuk, chief economist and strategist with Millennium Capital, said Tymoshenko appeared close to making a comeback but pointed out that results still offered scope for another Yanukovych-led coalition. “There is a high probability that BYUT and OU-PSD will form a working coalition, but if Moroz [Socialist Party] overcomes the 3% barrier and Lytvyn supports Yanukovych, then a broader coalition featuring the Regions, their smaller allies and the Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence Bloc is likely,” he said. “Much as in 2006, the Party of Regions can offer Our Ukraine the prime minister’s position in order to keep Tymoshenko from power.
“Tymoshenko’s chances are nevertheless very high indeed, but she must be careful not to repeat the mistakes of 2005, when she scared investors away with threats of reprivatisation,” he added.
The international media
International reaction focused on what was widely being dubbed as a remarkable comeback by Tymoshenko and offered praise for Ukraine’s democratic development, contrasting this process with the slide towards authoritarianism elsewhere in the former USSR. The UK’s The Times newspaper led its Monday morning edition with the story Orange Princess Triumphs at the Polls, while rival British paper The Independent offered more cautious analysis, stating: “It was back to the ballot box in Ukraine yesterday for the third election in as many years. Practice, alas, seems unlikely to produce the desired outcome – a stable and effective government. Early exit polls suggested the very same sort of three-party stalemate that prompted this election in the first place.”
The Independent continued: “Yet there are also grounds for optimism. While charges of dirty tricks proliferated during the campaign, this election – like the last – seems to have been generally free and fair.
“What is more, the stand-off between President and Parliament that precipitated this election – a stand-off during which special forces were at one point placed on alert – was resolved by constitutional means. And while Ukrainians may be jaded about so many elections, they still have sufficient confidence in the democratic process to cast their votes.
“Best of all, the media freedom and economic confidence triggered by the Orange Revolution still flourish. So long as there is no turning back in these crucial respects, orderly politics can perhaps be given a little more time.”
Kuchma’s take
Former president Leonid Kuchma called the vote a “rehearsal for the 2009 presidential election.” This sentiment was shared by The Washington Post, which wrote: “However uneasy Yushchenko might be about seeing Tymoshenko return to the prime ministership, Sunday's vote dramatically strengthened her position. And she has emerged as a potential candidate for the presidency in 2009, because Yushchenko's support has fallen considerably since the heady days of the Orange Revolution three years ago.”
Analysts praise democratic progress
Rainer Lindner, head of the Eastern Europe department at the Berlin-based Foundation for Science and Politics, said the vote had been held in a decent and democratic manner, adding that he was surprised with Tymoshenko’s progress. “In my opinion the most important outcome of these elections was the fact that Ukraine has conducted another democratic vote,” Lindner told Deutsche Welle. He said that Tymoshenko was expected to gain more votes than in 2006, “but not on such a scale.”
Adrian Severin, head of the European Parliament's team of observers, also said that the vote fitted well with European standards and urged all parties not to appeal the results. He predicted that Ukraine would now witness a complicated process of negotiations to create a coalition parliamentary majority and he urged political leaders to help establish a stable parliament.
Political analyst Tammy Lynch, a Senior Research Fellow at Boston University's Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology & Policy and a regular contributor to Business Ukraine, highlighted the gains made by both the Tymoshenko Bloc in particular and Ukrainian democracy in general. “The major story of the election is the continued rise of Yulia Tymoshenko. The election also showed a clear power shift within the Orange camp from Yushchenko to Tymoshenko, giving Tymoshenko a clear mandate from Orange voters. Yushchenko can no longer say he is the leader of the Orange camp, although his position still allows him significant control. Also, we saw a clear attempt by one party to create a national political party and break out of historical regional divisions. Ukraine has solidified its political pluralism and if the country can finalise the vote results quickly and openly, it will have taken a major step forward on the path to democracy.”
