As the row over Ukraine’s bid to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan rumbled on last week, the country was once again made uncomfortably aware of its status as a largely mute bargaining chip on the geopolitical gaming table. President Yushchenko responded by describing the international debate as humiliating while attempting to refocus discussion on Ukraine’s national security, but few in Western Europe appeared to be listening. Sadly, the President’s indignation proved utterly ineffective when confronted by the geopolitical realities of the situation, which dictates that this country is still very much part of the Russian sphere of influence. Thanks to the Kremlin’s assertive regional politics, many in the West continue to regard Ukraine’s Western-leaning government as little more than a nuisance and seem unable to find the unity of action or political will to support Ukraine’s integration efforts in the face of Russian threats and blustering.
Remnants of the Cold War
Predictably, the most vocal support for Ukraine’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) application has come from America and those eastern European countries which have recent experience of Russian domination, while calls for caution have been led by Germany and France, both of which fear the ramifications of upsetting Russia. Opposition to Ukraine within the NATO alliance has largely been built around the hollow argument that public opinion within the country is currently overwhelmingly opposed to membership. This is a particularly disingenuous excuse in light of the history behind the NATO question in Ukraine. Public opinion polls certainly appear to confirm that there is deep-seated opposition to any strengthening of ties, but given the fact that for almost half a century the Ukrainian population was bombarded with Soviet propaganda demonising the alliance, it is perhaps more surprising and noteworthy that as many as 25% or 30% of the population are already in favour of membership.
The propaganda of the Cold War has re-emerged as a central theme of the current debate in Ukraine, which remains clouded by falsehoods and lurid rumours of American bases in Crimea and Ukrainian soldiers sent off in their thousands to die in Afghanistan. This is not only unhelpful; it is also blatantly disingenuous. By citing Ukrainian public opinion as an obstacle, Paris and Berlin are effectively offering encouragement to those who seek to use disinformation about NATO as a tool to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the West.
This is manifestly unjust. Once the Ukrainian public has been given the chance to put all the old Cold War rhetoric to one side and engage in a well-informed, civilised public debate on the implications of NATO membership, who can say that levels of support will not climb above the 50% mark? The only way to find out is to engage. Ukraine is asking for nothing more than the opportunity granted to countries across eastern Europe in the 1990s, many of which also recorded initially low levels of public support for NATO membership.
The danger of rejecting Ukraine
Ukraine may well be genuinely better off remaining in its current state of internationally unaligned limbo, but it would be inviting future disaster if NATO’s European heavyweights conspire to reject Ukraine’s bid purely in order to placate a resurgent Russia. After all, as any amateur psychologist will confirm, when you acquiesce to the demands of a bully, you tend to encourage more bullying. There is now a very real danger that a failure to respond to Ukraine’s MAP overtures at this week’s NATO summit in Bucharest will be viewed as major victory for Russian strongarm tactics and a defeat for Ukraine’s Orange integration ambitions. The Kremlin would feel more secure in its Near Abroad than at any time since the Orange Revolution, while Ukraine’s EU ambitions would take a severe dent.
Domestically it would also send out a very strong signal to all Ukrainians that the West is not particularly interested in welcoming them into the fold. This sense of rejection is already palpable in Ukraine, where torturous visa restrictions and prevailing prejudices have already succeeded in making many Ukrainians feel distinctly unwanted. The end result could be a drop in support for the whole reform and democratisation process in Ukraine, which remains closely linked to Euro-Atlantic integration. Ultimately, Ukraine must always reckon on Russian interference as it strives to join the community of nations, but it would be particularly galling if this setback were to be the result of Western self-interest and trepidation.
