It is sometimes easy to forget that a little over three years ago Viktor Yushchenko was the lion of global democracy, championed in Brussels and Washington as the greatest advocate of transparent government and free elections in the former Soviet world. As the heroic leader of the Orange Revolution, he was accorded more positive international media coverage than any leader since Gorbachev in the final years of the Soviet empire. Since those heady days Yushchenko’s presidency has been damaged by repeated compromises with the old regime and internal divides which have greatly weakened the once formidable Orange alliance. His popularity has dwindled and his party has been trounced in consecutive elections.
The cracks which existed within the Orange alliance of 2004 were papered over prior to both the March 2006 parliamentary elections and last year’s September snap vote. On each occasion it has been Tymoshenko who has triumphed and then been asked to make concessions. Yushchenko, meanwhile, has twice followed up Orange success at the polls by attempting to undermine his erstwhile ally and pursue a broad coalition with elements from the Party of Regions. This is presumably due to the sense of panic generated by Tymoshenko’s continually soaring popularity ratings and genuine nationwide appeal, both of which have proven beyond the grasp of Yushchenko. It also reflects an undemocratic outlook that is totally at odds with the President’s publicly stated position.
A desperate plot
Attempts to broker post-election deals with his primary campaign rivals have already severely undermined Yushchenko’s credentials as the father of Ukrainian democracy. The latest scheme, according to government sources, involves persuading members of his Our Ukraine party to ditch the Orange coalition and vote against the Tymoshenko government. Speculation is mounting that we will witness this plot put into motion some time in the coming month. Yushchenko’s presidential chief of staff Vitkor Baloha has so far taken the public lead by creating a breakaway faction within Our Ukraine, but the strategy bares all the hallmarks of the backroom dealings with which Yushchenko’s presidency has become synonymous.
The Baloha breakaway strategy is a plan that flies in the face of the promises made during the September 2007 election campaign, and one that has little chance of achieving even limited, short-term success. Eventually Yushchenko would be forced to go to the polls, and any new election would surely bring Yulia Tymoshenko a landslide victory. Such is her commanding position that only Tymoshenko’s physical removal could now prevent her from triumphing if she is forced to campaign once more, a position of strength which must be apparent to all parties. It is little wonder, therefore, that the PM has been so uncharacteristically restrained when confronted by the tirades of presidential criticism to which she has been subjected in recent months. She is literally scoring points just by soaking up the abuse.
Too late make peace?
Ultimately, the only way Yushchenko could conceivably hope to be re-elected in 2009 would be with the public backing of Tymoshenko herself. The fact that he appears intent on provoking an outright confrontation would suggest that he has long since lost touch with political realities. There is much circumstantial evidence to suggest that this is indeed the case. Government insiders have told me on numerous occasions that access to the President is controlled by a small group of advisers who are using his office to pursue their own ambitions. He is, in other words, being manipulated. This is an all too familiar excuse and one that echoes the old, old adage of the Good Tsar who would rid the empire of all injustice if only he could, but who is consistently undermined by corrupt underlings.
Personally I do not think that Yushchenko is any more cut off from reality than he himself wishes to be. He is simply be stuck in the past, trapped in the Kuchma-era mentality that he himself was so instrumental in driving out of the Ukrainian political arena. As a result Yushchenko may soon find that history has passed him by. If that proves to be the case, he will only have himself to blame.
