Ukraine's close historical, cultural and geographical ties to Russia have not done the country many favours over the past couple of centuries. The Great Bear's smothering embrace has effectively prevented Ukraine from building relationships with any of the country's less disfunctional neighbours throughout central Europe and kept it very firmly fixed in the orbit of the Kremlin to such an extent that few outsiders have ever bothered to acknowledge Ukraine's existence as a separate entity.
If one is to judge by the many international investment groups with interests in Moscow now looking to diversify their portfolios into Ukraine all that may now be changing. In the year and a half we have left until the end of Putin's second term it should become increasingly apparent that as far as international finance is concerned the two countries are no longer joined at the hip. There are a number of reasons for this, not least the very real concerns that Putin's Kremlin Inc. style of business management does not offer much in the way of security guarantees, but the increasing political pluralism in Ukraine has also played a significant role in influencing international opinion.
While there is still much talk in Kyiv about insidious power struggles and the widening divide between the pro-Russian and pro-Western camps, crucially it remains clear that no single grouping in Ukraine is in a position to dominate. This is perhaps the greatest single success of the recently adopted constitutional changes, creating as they have an environment where in stark contrast to the existing Russian model no single force can dictate and the various clans are forced to co-operate. As things heat up in Moscow over the next eighteen months Ukraine is unlikely to remain untouched, but nevertheless the end result should be to create an increasingly flattering investment profile when compared to the high risk game of second-guessing the authoritarian Kremlin.
Readers with pro-Western leanings who have been horrified to see Viktor Yanukovych return to government would do well to bear this in mind before demanding the repeal of the 2006 constitutional reforms that allowed for his remarkable comeback. After all, the very fact that he and the Orange camp can compete within the same parliament is a sign that the country has come a long way, and a quick glance north is enough to remind the sceptics of the possible alternatives.
