Ukrainians are almost as used to coalition horse-trading as they are to electioneering. Last year saw a marathon four months of backroom talks before the so-called Anti-Crisis Coalition was eventually announced, paving the way for an unlikely return to power for Viktor Yanukovych.
No need for prolonged negotiation
In light of last year’s delays it was considered crucial that a coalition was announced and confirmed as quickly as possible following the September 30 vote, and the leaders of the winning BYUT and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defence blocs rushed to announce a coalition agreement last week.
With 228 seats in the new parliament, they would have the slimmest of majorities, but at the unveiling of the new coalition Our Ukraine leader Vyacheslav Kyrylenko was at pains to stress that the internal divides that previously dogged the Orange government of 2005 would no longer be an issue, stating that “100% of deputies” in his bloc would be supporting the candidacy and policy direction of Yulia Tymoshenko, who is expected to be named prime minister of the new administration.
Tymoshenko poised for PM return
According to the pre-election pact signed by both parties BYUT now has the right to appoint the prime minister, while OU/PSD will name the new parliamentary speaker, who is expected to be Kyrylenko himself. The ministries, meanwhile, will be split 50/50 between the two winning blocs, with further possible divisions should Volodymyr Lytvyn and his eponymous bloc reach agreement to join the coalition and add their 20 seats to the overall majority.
Lytvyn is seen as the middle man in Ukrainian politics, showing no particular inclination to back either side of the country’s political factions, but it is thought that the bloc leader’s demands are out of step with Orange officials’ estimations of his true worth to the coalition.
European Commission officials last week welcomed the apparent victory of the Orange coalition and the boost this gives to the country’s reform and Euro integration efforts. External relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner reflected, “The future government has important challenges ahead as Ukraine continues down the path of constitutional, political and economic reforms.
Court battle delays results
As the Orange coalition prepared to take power they were thwarted by a court challenge which prevents the election results being published. Delays now seem inevitable, and it is not clear whether the court case could eventually call into question the overall results of the election. The challenge has been registered at the High Administrative Court and comes from Ukraine’s Communist Party, which has questioned the election results due to alleged irregularities concerning voting by Ukrainians abroad.
It is not clear how long the court case could take to reach a conclusion, nor is it apparent whether the findings of their investigation could have serious implications for the Ukrainian election results, but whatever the outcome, nothing will now be decided officially until the court proceedings conclude.
