The financial cost of the world's worst nuclear accident will probably never be known with any degree of accuracy, given the economic conditions prevailing in the Soviet Union at the time of the Chornobyl disaster and the high inflation and volatile exchange rates that followed the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
An additional factor is that for several years after the explosion, nobody in the Soviet administration actually got around to tallying up the true cost of the damage.
Today, the estimates vary widely. The Ukrainian government puts the cost, more than two decades later, at several hundred billion dollars. Some experts meanwhile say Ukraine's total economic damage by 2010 will have amounted to USD 201 billion, others say USD 170 billion by 2015.
Whichever figures are more accurate, the costs are unquestionably of staggering proportions. Ukraine's gross national income in 2001 was USD 37 billion. In 1992, Ukraine spent 15% of the entire state budget on dealing with the aftermath of the accident, and by 1996 it was spending 6%. In more recent years, up to 7% of the state budget has been devoted to funding Chornobyl-related social benefits and recovery programmes.
The Chornobyl Forum, created on an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiative and as a contribution to the United Nations strategy for Chornobyl which helps deal with the after effects, has provided the most comprehensive evaluation ever of the accident's consequences to date.
Diverse consequences
According to the Chornobyl Forum's report, the direct financial consequences of the accident are the physical damage caused by the accident, the measures taken to taken to seal off the destroyed reactor, resettling the local population, the additional social and healthcare services provided to the affected population, environmental monitoring and studies and efforts to clean up the local area and disposal of radioactive waste.
Indirect costs include the cost of removing agricultural land and forests from use and the closure of agricultural and industrial facilities. Other costs include the additional energy production expenses resulting from the removal of the Chornobyl nuclear plant from the national electricity grid.
Thirty-one people died within the first two months of the accident from illnesses caused directly by radiation exposure. More than 2.8 million Ukrainians are suffering from Chornobyl-related health problems, including 255,000 of the 'liquidators' who took part in the highly hazardous clean-up operations. Some 106,000 are registered as disabled.
The UN's health agency has estimated that about 9,300 people will die from cancers caused by Chornobyl radiation. Some environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace, however, insist the toll could be up to ten times higher.
Since the accident, more than 330,000 people have been relocated away from the most affected areas, 116,000 of them being evacuated immediately after the explosion. The aftermath forced the closure of many businesses in the region, imposed limitations on agricultural production and added costs to manufacturing efforts. Many skilled people have left the region around the plant, further hampering economic recovery and raising the risk of long-term poverty.
President urges more action
Twenty-one years after the accident, President Viktor Yushchenko last week urged the country to put to use again the uninhabited and contaminated region around the destroyed plant.
"I am convinced that the Chornobyl zone is coming alive…and step by step we will begin to develop opportunities in the area," he said on the eve of the anniversary.
Projects being considered include a nature reserve reflecting the resurgence of wildlife in the area which is now largely bereft of humans, the President said. Also under consideration is a plan to use the area in the production of bio-fuels.
Despite the state's best efforts, Ukraine's ability to repair the damage is severely limited. There are neither the experts nor the funding to properly deal with Chornobyl's continued legacy. Restricted finance means that the headcount of workers in the restricted zone dwindles year by year and agencies engaged in accident management have heavy utility bill debts. At least USD 30 million is needed annually for the maintenance of the restricted zone, but the state budget provides only a USD 18 million.
According to Emergency Situations Minister Nestor Shufrych, Chornobyl-related programmes have seen a USD 100 million increase in state funding during 2007. In many cases, however, state compensation payments are of minimal assistance in terms of their real contribution to family incomes, but given the large number of recipients remain a major burden on the state. For example, a child under three in the family of a Chornobyl victim in 2007 receives from the state an additional UAH 13.50 (USD 2.70) monthly compared to UAH 2.70 (USD 0.50) per month in 2006. However, annual compensation to the immediate family of a breadwinner killed as a direct result of working at the plant following the disaster is now USD 1,500 - a significant increase on the USD 75 paid in 2006.
Increase in benefit claims
The number of people claiming Chornboyl-related benefits has seen a steady increase over the years rather than the decline that was initially expected. As the economic crisis of the 1990s deepened, registration as a victim of Chornobyl became for many the only means to receiving an income and access to vital healthcare such as medicines.
According to Ukrainian statistics, the number of people and their offspring designated as permanently disabled by the disaster increased from 200 in 1991 to 64,500 in 1997 and 91,219 in 2001.
Ukrainian pressure groups claim widespread corruption in this sensitive area, alleging it is a black hole into which large sums of state money disappear. "Chornobyl is one of the most corrupt issues," says Semen Gluzman, head of local NGO the Ukrainian Social Council.
Attempts to revive business
Frustrated with the relative ineffectiveness of government efforts and encouraged by international support, a few local businessmen are demonstrating a commitment to helping the area's rehabilitation.
The UNDP-funded Agency for Regional Development in the town of Korosten, 30 kilometres from Chornobyl, undertakes surveys of the economy, strategic planning of economic development and lobbying to change the international image of the area. The agency is also seeking out investors willing to contribute to regional development.
"One of our main achievements is to facilitate dialogue between business, society and local government that supports local development," says Igor Pachinsky, head of the Korosten Agency.
The Korosten area is rich in granite and other types of stone and was once well known for its quarries. Recently, a Polish company producing ceramics expressed its interest in doing business in the region. The local authority offered support for the construction of the factory and the necessary communications facilities. However, the investor finally pulled out "because of the negative Chornobyl image," Pachinsky says.
"We help mobilise people and do community organisation and we work with pre-NGOs and help create a strategic plan with the local administration," says Ann Merrill, UNDP Community Development Specialist for the Chernobyl Recovery and Development Programme. "People want to have a better life and they want to get on with life, not focus on the fact that they are Chornobyl victims," she adds.
