As the snap Kyiv mayoral election draws closer, it looks increasingly unlikely that the governing Orange coalition will be able to decide on a single candidate, raising the chances of incumbent Leonid Chernovetskiy of clinging onto office. Meanwhile, the eccentric Kyiv Mayor has continued to focus on attracting voters with promises and one-time payments. The elections of the city mayor and deputies to the Kyiv City Council are scheduled to coincide with the traditional Kyiv Days celebrations on May 25. The registration of candidates started on March 26 and will be closed on April 15. Candidates and their teams will then have just over one month to impress voters and raise their ratings.
Lack of Orange unity
Despite repeated appeals for the need to put forward a single candidate who could unite the various Orange parties and factions in the country, there is little sign that any progress has been made in this direction. Ukrainian boxer Vitaliy Klitschko would be the logical choice, having come in second in the 2006 election. He has already announced his candidacy and is one of the early favourites, but internal divisions rivalries look set to undermine the Orange push to remove Chernovetskiy and replace him with a government loyalist.
The head of the Presidential Secretariat, Viktor Baloha, has spoken out in favour of Klitschko, stating that his candidacy should satisfy not only the leaders of the Our-Ukraine-Self-Defence Bloc (NUNS) but also their partners in BYUT. “It is not the time to parade personal ambitions before the public or strike political bargains. Kyiv’s community has the right to expect logical and responsible steps from those whom it trusts,” he stated, referring to widespread support for Ukraine’s Orange parties within the Ukrainian capital.
First to break ranks was Mykola Katerynchuk, the leader of the European Party, which is itself part of the NUNS parliamentary bloc. Katerynchuk announced his decision to stand for election on April 2. “We are part of a nine party bloc within the Verkhovna Rada, but this is in no way connected to our participation in any other elections, either to city councils or of city heads,” he explained.
Tymoshenko’s dangerous double game
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has voiced her nominal support for a single Orange candidate but her actions would suggest that in reality she is preparing to back a campaign supporting one of her close BYUT allies. Tymoshenko is pressing for the introduction of a two-round election system instead of the existing first past the post system, which would seem to increase the chances of her candidate making through the first round before facing Chernovetskiy in a run-off. “In the first round votes are usually dispersed,” she pointed out last week.
Political analysts have explained Tymoshenko’s position as further evidence of the critical role played by Kyiv in the domination of Ukrainian politics. Analyst Volodymyr Fesenko from Kyiv’s Penta Centre for Applied Political Studies points out that since the Orange Revolution of 2004 all political forces have understood the key importance of the capital as a source of financial and informational influence. “The fact is that if Tymoshenko succeeds in gaining power in Kyiv it will prove decisive in her efforts to consolidate her power nationally.”
Accusations of public misspending
While his political enemies fight among themselves, Chernovetskiy is busy shoring up his own electoral support base. On April 1, the Kyiv Mayor signed a decree providing one-time social payments to vulnerable groups in Kyiv who “found themselves facing difficult living conditions.” The city budget will provide USD 300,000 to meet this election eve largesse, which has provoked criticism from Our Ukraine deputies. “If Chernovetskiy was using his own money for this elevated mission it would be admirable, but as it stands he is spending taxpayers’ money for his own election campaign,” said the party’s Kyrylo Kulykov.
Nevertheless, in recent years Ukrainian voters have proven easily swayed by populist moves and social security handouts designed to win their favour and Chernovetskiy’s latest demonstration of generosity will almost certainly do no harm to his ratings. According to a number of different opinion polls conducted in recent weeks, the current mayor is the current favourite to win the election. The Ukrainian Meridian Centre for Social Research is representative of the general trends exhibited in most polls, citing that 32% of voters are ready to support Chernovetskiy. Klitschko garnered only 20.7% of potential votes in this recent poll and Katerynchuk remained stuck on 10.1%. However, sociologists have stressed that until all candidates are known opinions polls will remain essentially meaningless.
Outsider candidates line up
Beyond the Orange in-fighting there are other options for Kyiv’s electorate. Volodymyr Lytvyn’s Bloc has put forward Viktor Pylypyshyn, the current head of the city’s Shevchenko District Council as their candidate, while the Socialists will offer up Mykola Danilin despite the fact that Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz has publicly expressed his confidence in a Chernovetskiy victory. The Party of Regions, meanwhile, is planning to announce its own candidate on April 7.
