Looking back at the past year, one can only wonder what possessed the Yanukovych government to embark on their policy of enticing opposition members to cross the parliamentary floor, a very public preamble towards achieving a constitutional majority which was to provide Yushchenko with the pretext needed to dissolve parliament and call new elections.
There must be many within the Party of Regions, not to mention the ousted Socialist Party, who now bitterly regret this policy of attempting to bury Yushchenko politically, when they could have comfortably sat out the remaining three years of their parliamentary mandate and enjoyed all the trappings of government. Instead, they find themselves in opposition, facing a formidable lady indeed. It is a situation that more astute members of the old coalition foresaw well in advance.
Yulia the only winner
When President Yushchenko disbanded parliament in April, personal acquaintances within the Party of Regions registered their private dismay in an off-the-record conversation. “What is he hoping to achieve? The end result will be bad for us and worse for him. The only winner will be Tymoshenko,” they reasoned. At the time I was inclined to agree, and nine months on this assessment remains more or less accurate. Tymoshenko has yet to be elected prime minister, but as the year draws to a close she has succeeded in turning the political status quo of January 2007 on its head.
Tymoshenko began the year with a high-profile visit to the US, where she pushed American leaders to back her demand for new elections. While Yushchenko appeared to dither and the Yanukovych government continued to make inroads into the presidential prerogative, Tymoshenko remained outspoken and uncompromising in her criticism of the ruling coalition.
Orange heir apparent
In many respects Yushcenko’s decision to call new elections was a public acknowledgement that playing second fiddle to Tymoshenko had become a political necessity. The defection of 12 opposition MPs in March provided the constitutional backdrop for the dramatic dismissal of parliament, but although the decision to dissolve the legislature was ultimately Yushchenko’s to make, he would surely never have taken such drastic action were it not for Tymoshenko’s pushing and prompting.
When it eventually came to pass, the September vote confirmed what most people already knew – namely that Tymoshenko had succeeded Yushchenko as the champion of the Maidan masses and the political embodiment of the ideals espoused during the Orange Revolution. Not only did she win over hundreds of thousands of discontented former Yushchenko supporters throughout western and central Ukraine, but her 31% of the vote also included a significant slice of support in the previously impenetrable Party of Regions citadels of the south and east.
Beyond the political power plays
These heady successes have since been tempered by the sobering experience of yet more coalition horse-trading. It took two months to sign a coalition deal, and the country has since witnessed the failure to elect Tymoshenko as PM at the first attempt.
All this poses certain question marks over the ability of Ukraine’s most charismatic politician to actually govern the country. Nobody would question the fact that Tymoshenko is a sensational politician with a media presence that places her head and shoulders above the competition. She may even be one of the best in the world when it comes to dazzling voters and impressing TV audiences. These attributes are potentially great news for a country so desperately in need of figures around which to mould a new, inclusive national identity, but they are not enough.
The true test for Tymoshenko will come over the next few months. Supporters have blamed the failure of 2005 on backstabbing and internal sabotage. The various inflation crises of the time were manufactured to discredit her, it is claimed. That may well be the case, but politics is partly the business of dealing with ones enemies successfully, and there was little sign of that in her first tenure as PM. Nor will she face fewer attempts to undermine her position this time round.
Tymoshenko must now demonstrate that she is as effective in power as she is formidable in opposition. The coming year is hers for the taking, but she still has it very much all to prove.
