Ukrainians can often be quick to believe the worst, so it should come as no surprise that this latest political crisis has had people musing over everything from economic collapse to the break up of the country and the end of the world as we know it. This tendency to accept pessimistic scenarios is quite reasonable given the country's dire history, but in recent times there is ample evidence to suggest that Ukrainian society is quite capable of absorbing the shock of political meltdown while continuing to make money even when the government is in a state of flux.
This resilience, itself also largely a product of Ukraine's unhappy past, can be seen in the persistent if uneven economic growth the country has enjoyed over the past three tumultuous years, when revolution, political sabotage, gas wars, endless election campaigns and three months without a functioning government have all failed to dampen the country's rampant growth sufficiently to scare off foreign investors or slow the real time rise in personal incomes that has seen Kyiv become one giant luxury car showroom. Admittedly this growth is measured in relation to the decade of utter poverty brought on by the Soviet collapse, but nevertheless numerous economic indicators point to the fact that the country now stands poised on the crest of an economic wave that may well in itself prove to be of historic proportions.
Will new elections and the threat of mass civil unrest destroy all this? While I am loath to tempt fate, there is very little to suggest that it could. On the contrary, Ukraine's unique experience at muddling along amid chaos and disaster will in all probability come in handy once again and allow business to carry on relatively unmolested while the country's political tremors gradually ebb away.
Where else but Ukraine would the boutiques of the capital city not only stay open during a revolution, as they did in 2004, but actually record increased sales?
The country has clearly moved on from the time when the political interests of the few could be allowed to unquestionably trump the interests of the many. Crucially, last week's attempts to stage a second 'People Power' revolution in the Ukrainian capital met with almost no reaction whatsoever from Kyivites themselves. Ukraine's emerging middle class remains predominantly rooted in the capital city where the population enjoys higher salaries and better job prospects, and last week this relative prosperity allowed them to regard the farce as a sad illustration of just how far the regions have yet to come without actually responding in kind. The average Kyivite may not relish the idea of yet another election campaign, but that does not mean they will allow it to interfere with the real business of making money and it is this resilience in the face of political turmoil rather than the turmoil itself which should be of primary interest to investors looking towards Ukraine.
