The coalition circus continued throughout the past week, but regardless of how many people from the countryside the government busses up to the capital it looks increasingly likely that they will have to face the reality of new elections sooner or later. The end of June would appear to present itself as the most obvious compromise date, which will mean two more long months of increasingly hysterical politicking before the dust begins to settle on this latest round in the battle for the soul of Ukraine.
Many commentators have suggested that the election results will be very similar to those of last years poll, but I would beg to differ. While the broad voter patterns will not be radically different, these parliamentary elections nevertheless pose a number of intriguing questions that could have an enormous impact on the political landscape. For example, will Orange turncoat Oleksandr Moroz dare stand alone or will he bite the bullet and seek safety (along with political oblivion) under the protective wing of the Viktor Yanukovych's party list? Will Rinat Akhmetov, with his growing international business empire and interests in the West decide to stand by his man, or will he consider a less partisan pro-Russian position? Will a united nationalist ticket prove appealing enough to pass the 3% mark, and will they face the pseudo-Soviet Slavic front of Vitrenko et al?
Such possibilities will no doubt dominate beerhall debates in the months ahead, but while entertaining enough they are all sideshows compared to the real contest, which will be Yulia Tymoshenko's big play for the Yanukovych vote. Much has been written about Ukraine's great divide, and while it is true to say that judging by voter patterns in the past few elections the country is split along an easily navigable fault line, closer analysis of those results would suggest that Princess Yulia is well on her way to conquering Little Russia. Yanukovych may well have been a comfortable winner in his heartlands, but what a lot of people seem to have missed is the fact that Yulia came second in all but two of those blue oblasts.
Whereas neither Viktor can claim much support away from the regions they respectively won in the 2004 presidential race, Yulia has genuine national appeal.
This is perhaps no great surprise. After all, Yulia is a child of Ukraine's heavily Russified industrial belt who is quite capable of speaking the language of the broader electorate when necessary. She also has the personal magnetism and charisma to win over many, if not all, of the doubters. Now that President Viktor Yushchenko appears to have accepted the necessity of playing second fiddle to his former sidekick, there would appear to be little in Yulia's way. Success in the south and east would cement Tymoshenko's position as the only Ukrainian politician capable of bridging the country's ideological divide, providing her with a unique opportunity to guide the country away from the squabbles and indecision of the past fifteen years.
The irony here is that while everyone focuses on the much-hyped "Battle of the Viktors," by the time this election is over Ukraine's real victor will probably be the pretty little lady with the iconic hairdo and the winning smile.
