As ever in Ukraine, it looks as though the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing. The dissolved Verkhovna Rada is still working and passing laws which the President obviously isn't signing, the speaker has been questioning the validity of early elections which he calls a "gamble" while a top electoral official has warned about the vote becoming a "legal funeral." Meanwhile, Viktor Yushchenko is doing a pretty good job of looking unperturbed, saying that the date of the vote - now scheduled for September 30 - is final and is not subject to appeal. He claimed that the situation is stable and under control and expressed his confidence that "political collisions will recede into the background in the near future."
Moroz faces tough campaign
The tactics of Socialist and Parliamentary Speaker Oleksandr Moroz's are now more or less clear. The 63-year-old realises that his chance to enter a new parliament is at best remote and is bargaining on the better conditions in the election campaign to pull back the end of his political career. "Everybody - from analysts and journalists to people in the metro - are saying that [Moroz] turned lawmakers into hostages to his personal aspirations with his daily demands for the final dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada," commented Yushchneko's chief of staff, Viktor Baloga.
Moroz supported Yushchenko during the 2004 Orange Revolution which led the President to power. However his sudden last minute volte-face in favour of Yushchenko's arch-rival Viktor Yanukovych resulted in Yanukovych becoming Prime Minister last year.
Liliya Grygorovych, a lawmaker from Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, revealed the extent of the damage done. "Call an ambulance and take Moroz to a clinic for treatment of paranoia, because his acts contradict any logic or common sense," she said.
Electoral body mired in dispute
The Central Elections Commission - the main body which guides the election campaign - has been mired in the confrontation between its pro-Yanukovych members and its pro-Yushchenko head over regional responsibilities. Pro-Yanukovych members demanded a joint session to resolve the problem but were ignored by the Commission's head. "They might use Central Election Commission to organise the vote's legal funeral," he said.
In an article published last Tuesday in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a leading German newspaper, the President indirectly accused Moroz of an attempt to drag out last month's deal to hold early parliamentary elections on September 30. "Certain groups in Ukraine's parliament… are trying to prolong their agony. They breach their promises, harming the country's interests," Yushchenko was quoted as saying.
"When political leaders disregard democratic values and state institutions are paralysed, the only chance to protect democracy is to materialise the will of voters," he continued, expressing his confidence that the early vote will be free of fraud, in accordance with international standards, and on time.
In April, Yushchenko dissolved the Verkhovna Rada and called snap elections, accusing Yanukovych's party of usurping power by bribing lawmakers to change sides in an attempt to gain a two-thirds majority in the house. The pro-Yanukovych majority called the move illegal.
Dirty campaign predicted
Analysts continue to predict the dirtiest campaign ever seen in Ukraine. Vladimir Kornilov of the Russian Institute for CIS Countries said he campaign will be short, but the dirtiest in Ukrainian history. "The possibility of holding the vote on September 30 is very high. Everybody realises that in case Yushchenko, for this or that reason, fails to conduct elections, he will immediately lose trust both at home and abroad. His team will therefore do its best to hold the vote," said Raisa Bogatyriova, a top lawmaker from the Party of Regions.
But it's also anyone's guess what will happen afterwards. Three major political forces - Yanukovych's Party of Regions, Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko - will dominate the Rada as before. Yushchenko and Yanukovych broadly agree on business-oriented economic policy while the fierce Tymoshenko continues to play on curbing the oligarchs.
"The political palette of the country's future parliament will not change seriously but the principles of parliamentary co-operation will. It is vital to uproot political corruption and develop a political culture of parliamentary dialogue. This is the major lesson Ukrainian politicians have learned," Reuters quoted Yushchenko as saying during his recent visit to Brussels.
However, many doubt weather the Ukrainian leaders will manage to cooperate peacefully and fruitfully in the new Rada. "…The post-election negotiations to last for weeks if not months, raising questions about the government's capacity to make decisions over this time. The outcome of any coalition talks will depend as much on the distribution of power and influence as on political principles. Corruption will not go away. Business people favour a Yushchenko-Yanukovych coalition or a Yushchenko-Yanukovych-Tymoshenko grand alliance. But whether these rivals can co-operate more successfully than in the past is a moot point. So is the question of how they will tackle Ukraine's fundamental political challenges," the Financial Times said.
