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Banking & Finance
BANKING THROUGH BRANCHESUkraine’s WTO entry will mean more access to the domestic market for branches of international banks. But there remain numerous question marks over the fine print of the legislation that will effect them
More MORE M&A DEALS IN BANKING SECTOR AHEADUkraine’s banking sector has been dominated by foreign buy-outs and unprecedented international attention over the past two years. Will the wave of mergers and acquisitions continue for the foreseeable future or have we seen the peak of the bank-buying frenzy? Subscribe MORTGAGE MARKET: PROGRESS AND PROBLEMSUkrainians who decided to wait till early 2008 before taking out a mortgage may now regret their caution: lending is to be choked off, and arranging a long-term loan will be practically impossible due to new regulations from the country’s central bank Subscribe RETAIL BANKING SECTOR RISKS OVERHEATING Retail banking in Ukraine has demonstrated such impressive growth over just a few years that local banks have actually been urged to slow down and redirect credits from individuals to the country’s industries in order to minimise the risk to the national economy. The threat of overheating was sounded at the Second Interregional Conference of Ukraine’s Banking Unions in Lviv last month SubscribeTHE GREAT SOVIET BANK PAYBACKFor the first two months of the year the State Savings Bank of Ukraine (Oshadbank) has been a popular place for older Ukrainian citizens. More than 5 million people have so far visited its offices throughout the country and registered for the return of their lost Soviet-era savings. Meanwhile, politicians are thinking about the future of this giant state bank Subscribe A LONDON PALACE FIT FOR A PRESIDENT’S DAUGHTERUkraine’s business elite has long been interested in foreign property, but the bar was raised to new heights recently when Ukrainian businesswoman and philanthropist Elena Franchuk, the daughter of ex-president Leonid Kuchma and wife of billionaire industrialist Viktor Pinchuk was reported to have bought the world’s most expensive home, a villa in London’s Kensington district, for a record GBP 80 million (USD 159 million). Such outflows of capital are partly due to the desire of many among Ukraine’s elite to own five-star properties in the West, but there are often more complex reasons
Subscribe NEW GOVERNMENT BOOSTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCELast month research company GfK Ukraine and the Kyiv-based International Centre for Policy Studies announced the latest results of their research on the mood of local consumers, with a marked upturn in optimism due to returned political stability
More UKRAINE’S CYPRUS CONNECTION For many years Cyprus has been the tax haven of choice for Ukrainian businessmen, but last year saw particularly huge sums moving to the Mediterranean island sparking debate over the nature of Ukraine’s relationship with the EU member state SubscribeTHE ART OF (CORPORATE) WARIn the breathing space between elections, confrontations slowly shift from politics to the business world. Corporate wars are much rarer than politicians’ battles but they tend towards the same methods seen in politics and in recent years that has meant increasing attempts to appeal to public opinion via information wars that lay corporate clashes before the general population, leading to soiled reputations and bitter cycles of accusation and counter-accusation Subscribe UKRAINE’S EXPRESS DELIVERY SECTOR: IN DIRE NEED OF EXPRESS FIXINGExpress operators – DHL, UPS, FedEx and others – pride themselves on guaranteed, fast and reliable, on demand, worldwide, integrated, door-to-door delivery. However, express shipments headed for Ukraine are guaranteed only as far as the country’s borders where they collide with the State Customs Service, which remains mired in Soviet-era bureaucracy and acts as a barrier to the sector’s development Subscribe UKRAINIAN BANKS AND TAX: TIME TO START PAYING UPUkraine’s booming banking sector is attracting the attention of international banking sector leaders looking to gain a foothold in this potentially lucrative emerging market. Tax collectors are also enjoying a windfall as banking sector profits and renewed political will combine to produce record state budget revenues Subscribe THE COST OF COMING OUT OF THE SHADOWSAlthough Ukraine’s economy does seem to be making progress, an estimated 50% to 60% of its businesses remain in the shadows making it a major hidden sector among post-Soviet transition economies, according to various sources. Many see Ukraine’s WTO progress as the first efficient step towards eliminating the country’s black economy, but what will the cost be to consumers? Subscribe ITALY’S INTESA SANPAOLO TO BUY PRAVEX BANK FOR EUR 504 MILLIONIntesa Sanpaolo, an Italian banking group, announced last week that it had agreed to pay EUR 504 million for 100% of Pravex Bank, the Ukrainian bank controlled by the family of Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetskiy. The deal is expected to be finalised in the coming months following approval by the Italian and Ukrainian authorities More UKRAINE’S OUTSTANDING OPIC DEBT: A BARRIER TO FOREIGN INVESTMENTAmid all the fanfare that has accompanied the signing of a protocol which will bring Ukraine WTO membership, it is worth noting that a disagreement over a relatively small amount of money has made it impossible for Ukraine to enjoy the benefits of an obscure but extremely important agency of the United States government, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) More THE IMPACT OF UKRAINE’S WTO MEMBERSHIPUkraine’s 14-year struggle for membership in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is expected to reach a triumphant conclusion this week when the group’s general council will officially invite the former Soviet republic to join. Membership will bring with it economic implications as well as serving as a launch pad for Orange Ukraine’s broader Euro-Atlantic integrationist ambitions Subscribe THE NEED FOR GREATER BANKING TRANSPARENCYA new survey released by the National Bank of Ukraine covering domestic bank ownership has been welcomed as a step towards greater transparency in the sector, but the number of banks who refused to participate in the report or chose to offer only partial information suggests that we are still a long way away from a truly open approach Subscribe THE NEW TYMOSHENKO GOVERNMENT: DYNAMIC START, UNCERTAIN FUTUREThe new Tymoshenko government has committed itself to a broad programme of ambitious reforms and increased government spending, but will the country’s vibrant foreign investment climate survive the corrective surgery this envisages?
Subscribe UKRAINE CAUGHT BY GLOBAL STOCK MARKET CRASH January 22 saw record losses on Ukraine’s stock market as the world’s financial capitals were hit by a major crash triggered by problems with mortgage loans in the United States, but analysts remain confident that the bullish Ukrainian market can somehow ride out the storm MoreCAN UKRAINE BENEFIT FROM THE GLOBAL EQUITY FEVER?World markets have taken a tumble in the last week as the repercussions of the sub-prime crisis played havoc with international financial markets, but could Ukraine benefit from the crash? Subscribe UP, UP AND AWAYUkraine’s recent economic growth is under threat from dangerously high rates of inflation. Experts agree that this inflationary threat has been growing for a long time and could take years to tackle More A YEAR OF BANKING CONSOLIDATION?After another year of rollercoaster Ukrainian politics, 2008 began with cautious optimism. The triangle of rapid private consumption, influx of foreign capital and soaring inflation are all key variables which will define Ukraine’s financial stability throughout much of this year, and the banking industry remains dependent on the sustainable balance of these factors Subscribe TYMOSHENKO PLEDGES TRANSPARENT PRIVATISATIONLast Wednesday Ukraine’s new government approved a programme of economic, judicial and political reforms which includes the promise of a corruption-free privatisation programme, something which has been a hobbyhorse for Yulia Tymoshenko since her 2005 premiership and remains a central pillar of her campaign pledge to fight corruption Subscribe 2007’S WINNERS AND LOSERS“Dear fellow Ukrainians,” began President Viktor Yushchenko in his New Year address to the nation. “We have a hard year behind us. We have lived through much – highs and lows, dramas and happiness.” This was something of an understatement, given Ukraine’s mercurial journey through 2007. What lies ahead for the coming year? More SUPPORT FOR YOUNG ENTREPRENEURSEven with the banking sector booming and support for small businesses growing, it remains hard for young Ukrainians to turn their business dreams into reality. A new British-backed initiative in the Donbass region is trying to make it easier for first-time entrepreneurs to get started Subscribe BUMPER YEAR FOR INTERNATIONAL ACQUISITIONSUkraine’s banking sector has had another banner year in 2007 with record numbers of foreign acquisitions and a booming domestic consumer market. Will this trend continue on into the coming twelve months? More UKRAINE’S WORLD-BEATING STOCK MARKETUkraine’s equity market has had a record-breaking year, with some stocks climbing over 1,000% and its PFTS Index ranking as the fastest-growing index in the world. What will 2008 bring? More MORTGAGE MARKET NEEDS TO MATUREUkraine’s real estate market has been the most bullish in the region for the past few years, with construction of new buildings never keeping pace with demand for quality housing from the emerging middle classes. As the banking sector matures, more and more Ukrainians are opting for mortgages to finance their climb up the social ladder, but the market for this type of finance still has plenty of room for growth Subscribe EASTERN EUROPE’S FINANCIAL FOCUSIn the first nine months of 2007 foreign investments increased year-on-year by 70.5% to USD 5.24 billion. According to the State Statistics Agency, the main driving factors were the financial and banking sectors More IMPROVING LOGISTICS: THE CHALLENGE AHEADA new World Bank study ranking the logistics capabilities of 150 countries demonstrates the depth of the problems facing Ukraine as it prepares for Euro 2012 and beyond. Huge amounts of private sector money are being invested to solve the country’s infrastructural problems, but government inadequacies, particularly in the area of customs, pose an obstacle to reform Subscribe JUST WHO IS UKRAINE’S RICHEST MAN?Assessing the net worth of any country’s richest citizens is an exercise in educated guesswork, but in an environment as lacking in transparency as Ukraine it can be particularly problematic. Recent developments in Australia suggest that one of Ukraine’s most publicity shy billionaires might actually be the country’s wealthiest individual Subscribe MARKETS RALLY THROUGHOUT OCTOBERDespite lingering post-election concerns among the local and international investment communities, the Ukrainian stock market continues to perform strongly and hit record highs in October. A new government could mean more growth More DANGERS ON THE ROAD AHEADWhile politicians horse-trade to form a coalition, Ukraine’s economic health is going virtually unchecked. With soaring inflation, sinking global competitiveness and endemic corruption, Ukraine needs to implement prudent fiscal policies and promote transparency to sustain impressive investment levels Subscribe NATIONAL BANK CRITICISED AS INFLATION FEARS WORSENIn Ukraine’s political vocabulary, stability and the free market are basic parts of the mantra. Yet, in practice the two may be antithetical, a point that may soon be proven in the market place, in spite of the National Bank of Ukraine’s efforts to the contrary Subscribe UKRAINE RANKS LOW IN GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEXA new world competitiveness index released October 31 by the World Economic Forum shows that Ukraine and other former Soviet countries still lag behind most of the developed world in competitiveness More PRICE RISES THREATEN LIVING STANDARDSThere are growing fears that rising inflation will force living standards down for many Ukrainians amid a climate of economic growth and booming international investment Subscribe UKRAINIAN FIRMS PREPARING FOR INTERNATIONAL IPOSAs Ukraine’s economy matures domestic companies are increasingly looking to list on international stock markets to gain prestige and greater access to the highways of global finance Subscribe REGIONAL BANKING IN LVIVWhile the rest of Europe is witnessing the decline of regional banks, with most of the countries dominated by a few large universal players there is a strong case to made in favour or regional specialisation in Ukraine Subscribe WILL RISING INFLATION DERAIL THE ORANGE ALLIANCE’S SECOND CHANCE?Ukraine’s democracy took a huge step forward with free and fair elections at the end of September, but will inflationary threats derail the anticipated Orange coalition? Subscribe INVESTING IN UKRAINE’S BLACK EARTHUkraine is famed for its agricultural wealth, but many smaller farms currently operating suffer from a lack of access to the financial tools required to make them truly efficient. The banking community is increasingly taking notice of this discrepancy Subscribe ROBUST STOCK MARKET CONFOUNDS CONCERNS OVER TYMOSHENKO WINTalk of investor flight over a possible return to power for Yulia Tymoshenko failed to materialise last week as the market responded strongly to Ukraine’s third democratic elections in the past three years
Subscribe SECOND TIME LUCKY... PERHAPSPolitical stagnation and continuous infighting in the run up to Sunday’s election is said to have helped rather than impeded economic growth in Ukraine Subscribe UKRAINE JOINS THE GLOBAL GOLD RUSH New regulations restricting the use of recycled gold in jewellery and fears over dollar stability are driving Ukrainian demand for the precious metal higher and higher SubscribeTAKING THE PULSE OF UKRAINE’S INVESTMENT CLIMATEAn investors’ conference in Kyiv last week heard some frank talk about Ukraine’s real prospects as an investment destination and despite the usual complaints about political instability and lack of transparency, the overall prognosis was upbeat with high expectations expressed for the remainder of the year Subscribe TIME TO DITCH THE DOLLAR?As the dollar reaches new historical lows Ukrainian monetary policymakers must be wondering how much longer they should defend a narrow exchange rate corridor against the greenback Subscribe UKRAINE MIRED NEAR BOTTOM OF WORLD BANK BUSINESS REPORTDespite being one of the hottest real estate markets and having earlier this year won the right to co-host Euro 2012, one of the world’s greatest sporting events, the World Bank still regards Ukraine as one of the hardest places on earth to do business Subscribe A NEW WAVE OF ACQUISITIONSIn line with analysts’ expectations the current wave of foreign bank acquisitions in Ukraine is now moving towards of second-tier banks Subscribe RETURN TO RELATIVE REALITY FOR THE UKRAINIAN STOCK MARKETAfter a bumpy summer ride the Ukraine’s PFTS index has returned to a more stable footing, but with elections looming attention is now turned to scenarios for the post September 30 world Subscribe ANOTHER MAJOR BANKING MERGER?A major increase in authorised capital by the Kyiv-based Finance & Credit Bank prompts speculation that the bank is preparing to be acquired by an international player Subscribe THE NEED FOR TRANSPARENCYEven as banks around the world enter the unchartered waters of financial turbulence linked to sub-prime credit woes in the US, Ukrainian banking continues to enjoy an upswing, albeit slower than last year Subscribe AMERICA’S SHAME: THE SUBPRIME CRASHThe implosion of the US subprime market and its global reverbations have revealed inexcusable complacency and what is in effect a giant pyramid scheme Subscribe FACING THE CREDIT STORM: WILL UKRAINE ESCAPE UNSCATHED?It is now clear that the credit squeeze that began in the US is not just a storm in a teacup, but fortunately the malaise is unlikely to have a drastic effect on Ukraine’s isolated markets Subscribe NO END IN SIGHT FOR THE UKRAINIAN BANKING BOOMThe Ukrainian banking sector is increasingly attracting international attention and posting record growth figures on the back of a real estate boom, bullish business sector and rising salaries, but are the numbers sustainable? Subscribe SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL: THE GROWTH OF THE ENTREPRENEURIAL CLASSAs they search for ways to diversify their limited portfolios, more and more Ukrainian banks are finding a recipe for success in supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises Subscribe UKRAINIAN EQUITIES AFTER THE ELECTIONSEveryone has their own views on politics, but money is money. So beyond the ideologies and policies at stake, what kind of impact might the coming elections have on Ukraine’s equities markets? Subscribe PREPARE FOR A RESTLESS SUMMERDespite local political troubles, Ukrainian stocks have been flying high, but the jury is out on whether they will be able to absorb the effects of a troubled US market More EBRD SELLS KREDOBANK STAKEThe sale of a 28% share of Kredobank to Poland’s PKO is yet another example of how the Ukrainian banking sector continues to be a market of prime interest for major players
Subscribe A SWEET DEAL ON THE PFTSIn an IPO that placed 20% of its shares on the PFTS last week, major Ukrainian sugar manufacturer UkrRos raised USD 42 million which it plans to invest in an ambitious expansion programme More GOING, GOING, GONEThe antiques market in Ukraine is full of pitfalls with plenty of counterfeit pieces in circulation, but it is by no means to be avoided - the cautious can do well if they follow a few simple guidelines
Subscribe DISCOVERING SECURITISATIONMany Ukrainian banks are now looking seriously at securitisation as a way of accessing cheaper sources of funding for real estate loans. With some small-scale success already evident, much more is sure to follow Subscribe VALUING TRANSACTIONS: HOW MUCH IS IT WORTH?M&A transactions involving non-traded stock have traditionally been benchmarked against exchange prices, but in Ukraine the small market size means this process is uncommon More SWEDBANK CONCLUDES TAS DEAL Swedbank expects high performance from its newly-acquired Ukrainian unit as the local banking sector continues rapid expansion MoreALMOST AS GOOD AS IT GETSNo stock market is ever an entirely safe bet, but Ukrainian PFTS has proven resilient against political instability and a general peaking of emerging market stocks worldwide Subscribe DUE DILIGENCE: MINIMISING RISK In a fast-moving market such as Ukraine’s where buyouts, takeovers and mergers are gathering pace, the need for careful due diligence processes has never been greater SubscribeENCOURAGINGLY SPEEDY GROWTHConcorde Capital’s head of research Konstantin Fisun says that the swift rise of the PFTS is due to a range of positive factors, such as increased foreign interest and moves towards global standards by more Ukrainian companies Subscribe EURO 2012: EUPHORIA OVER, WORK BEGINSAfter a brief period of mutual back-slapping over the successful bid for the Euro 2012 tournament, Ukraine’s leaders now face the critical questions: How - and how much? Subscribe GOING FURTHER AFIELD: XXI CENTURY GOES WEST Kyiv-based real estate investment firm XXI Century Investment has led the way in successfully raising capital through western institutions SubscribeTHE PFTS: TICKING THE RIGHT BOXESDespite a slow start by international standards, the PFTS is now well on the way to becoming a serious international player as Ukraine’s market capitalisation grows Subscribe UKRAINIAN INDEX FUNDS: ANOTHER STAR PERFORMEROn-line Capital’s two PFTS-linked funds have been enormously successful on the back of Ukraine’s high-performing stocks, so much so the company is considering a third Subscribe WHAT THE MARKET SAYSWe take a quick poll of Ukraine’s top investment and equity firms to find out the winners, losers, sectors to look for and their market predictions. Politics will be influencial, they say, but not critically so Subscribe UNICREDIT SNAPS UP UKRSOTSBANK In a landmark USD 2 billion deal, one of Ukraine’s biggest banks finally goes under the hammer following a series of failed negotiations MoreREVEALING THE REAL COST OF CREDIT A move by the National Bank of Ukraine forcing banks to reveal hidden charges in loan contracts may hurt their profits a little in the short term, but ultimately transparency will prove to be for the good of the sector SubscribeSPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE CONTROVERSY WEARS ON Proposed new legislation governing Ukraine’s special economic zones has its supporters and detractors - but few would argue that something must be done SubscribeINSURANCE MARKET SET TO TAKE OFFDespite foreign companies’ willingness to enter the Ukrainian insurance market, the sector remains small. However, insiders are now seeing signs of serious growth Subscribe TIME FOR NEW REGULATIONS? Low entry requirements mean that too many small banks remain in Ukraine, blocking the consolidation the industry needs SubscribeConsumers in the spotlightThe results of the Consumer Confidence Index in Ukraine consistently demonstrate a strong connection to the volatile political situation
More Interview: Yuriy Lakhno The CEO of the Generali-Garant insurance company on the recent tie-up with Italy’s Generali and the growth of Ukraine’s immature but burgeoning insurance market
SubscribeStarting a critical relationship Having the right law firm on your side in Ukraine can be one of the most useful tools in a company’s armoury, so taking care in your choice of legal representation is a must
SubscribeAN INDUSTRY-DRIVEN BANKING BOOMDonetsk region is already reponsible for 10% of Ukraine’s personal banking business, but this figure is set to grow as salaries rise on the back of strong industrial growth Subscribe SECURING LONG-TERM FUNDINGA legal guide to Eurobond placements, international financing and securitisation in Ukraine More THE LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE Despite all the hype about unparalleled growth, most Ukrainian banks are stuck for options when it comes to a critical resource - liquidity MoreCREDIT BUREAUX: ASSESSING THE RISKThe recent emergence of credit bureaux in Ukraine as a way for banks to assess clients’ creditworthiness is a welcome development Subscribe INTERVIEW: LYUDMILLA RASPUTNA The CEO of Kreditprombank gives perspectives on the future of corporate & retail banking in Ukraine, the importance of international capital and views on the sector’s future SubscribeINTERVIEW: VOLODYMYR LAVRENCHUK Raiffeisen Bank Aval’s chairman on post-merger strategies, the retail business and risk management SubscribeRETAIL BANKING: RIDING THE WAVE With its explosive growth rates, retail banking is unquestionably the prime driver of the sector in Ukraine - but the party won’t last forever SubscribeTHE BANKING M&A MARKET: BETTING ON A BRIGHT FUTURE Ukraine’s banking sector boom has seen international players move in to get a slice of the country’s economic boom. But there is only a limited number of buyers and ROE is limited, so high asset prices won’t last SubscribeUKRAINE’S FOREX CHALLENGE As the days of the hryvnia’s peg to the dollar look numbered, banks need to start looking more closely at foreign currency risk SubscribeInvestors putting politics asideThe stock market has been staunchly confident throughout the political crisis More No need for a chrystal ballThe long-held suspicions that the markets are learning to ignore the political bickering are being confirmed by Ukraine’s high economic and market performance despite the ongoing War of the Viktors Subscribe UKRAINE AND THE WEAK DOLLAR With the hryvnia effectively pegged to the US dollar which is still weakening against the euro, Ukraine could potentially benefit on the export front but trade barriers leave this in the realms of theory SubscribeA FLURRY OF M&A DEALS, BUT VOLUMES STILL SMALL Mergers, takeovers and privatisation deals have all increased in numbers in recent times, but lack of transparency is still acting as a brake on greater activity SubscribeM&A: WHAT THE LAW SAYSA guide to the regulations, conventions and practices of conducting Mergers & Acquisitions in Ukraine Subscribe THE SEARCH FOR STABLE FUNDING As the growth of credit continues unabated in Ukraine, banks now face the need to secure stable and economic sources of funding SubscribeDIVERGING VALUE PERCEPTIONSThe failure of the Ukrsotsbank-Banca Intesa deal is perhaps a sign of foreign investors re-evaluating the high premiums recently paid for prime Ukrainian business assets Subscribe MORTGAGES ON THE RISE The real estate construction frenzy and lower interest rates mean that the mortgage sector in Ukraine is booming. But will interest rates drop to the point where it can truly become a mass market? SubscribeA LOOK INSIDE THE RETAIL CREDIT BOOM Ukraine’s retail credit market is growing at a phenomenal rate and despite emerging market risks, it is unlikely to slow down any time soon SubscribeTHE FORCE OF CONVERGENCEAs one of the last countries to join the world of capitalist market forces, Ukraine has the opportunity to fast-track itself to economic parity with its neighbours. But the politicians will have to learn to play the game too Subscribe EMBRACING RISK While Ukraine still exhibits post-Soviet suspicion of insurance as a necessary function, attitudes are changing and the market is growing with the help of foreign players SubscribeUKRSOTSBANK SALE ON THE ROCKS As the sale of Ukraine’s number four bank to Italy’s Banca Intesa SanPaolo slips past deadline, the industry considers rising values as a major factor SubscribeBONDS: STABILITY VERSUS RISKThe bond market in Ukraine has been in full swing since the early years of the decade. There is money to be made, but it’s not for the faint-hearted or the small-timer More DEVELOPMENTS IN LONG-TERM FORECASTINGHow a Canadian-funded project is helping Ukraine’s government develop the tools it needs for more effective long-range economic forecasting and analysis Subscribe QUO VADIS, UKRAINE? Ukraine’s banking system is set to change dramatically, but it could go in either the direction of Russia’s banks or Central Europe’s. Here’s why SubscribeMORE EU CASH BUT NO END IN SIGHTEU entry is still a distant goal for Ukraine but the prospect of eventual membership is being kept alive, albeit with caveats, by the country’s political leaders Subscribe WHY BANKS NEED BALANCED GROWTH Greater utilisation of available international credit for energy efficiency and SME finance could have positive consequences for the economy and become an even healthier product line for banks SubscribeSHANGHAI BLUES The recent sputtering of the Shanghai bourse demonstrated that in some ways, less developed markets like Ukraine’s can turn out to be a safer bet SubscribeECONOMY: THE WEEK IN REVIEWThere was much comment last week on the expected increase in the minimum wage and pensions. More THE SWEDISH CONNECTION TAS-Kommerzbank buys for USD 735 million, analysts say premium paid by Swedbank to gain foothold in emerging Ukrainian market Subscribe | |